Chapter 261 War Game Deduction

Chapter 261 War Game Deduction

Before I knew it, it was Sunday.

Li Yuan didn't go out in the past two days. After all, his parents were looking for him.

Ever since they learned about Zhou Ranran, their mentality had problems.

Li Wanhe didn't want to go back at all. He made excuses to go out for a walk when he had nothing to do. In fact, he just went to the hospital to see the child.

He couldn't show it yet, so he could only continue to make excuses, saying that he was chatting with Zhou Youfang.

That was his grandson after all, and it was impossible to say he didn't care.

Zhou Juan can only take care of Jiang Yiling at home most of the time. She has a crush on both sides, so she has no choice.

Of course, the most important thing is to call him back. The old couple guessed that they had already discussed some solutions, but they never saw him.

When he woke up in the afternoon, before he was ready to eat, Chen Jie said: "There will be a guest at home later, and it is inconvenient for me to stay here... um... so the meal will be late."

Li Yuan, who had just woken up, was not hungry, but he was curious. Who was coming, and Chen Jie had to avoid it?

Isn't she from Tang Jianjun's side?

"Who's coming?"

"You'll know later. It'll take ten minutes at most. I'll make you a cup of soy milk first. I'll definitely be back in an hour or two."

Li Yuan frowned and hummed softly.

The identity of the visitor must be extremely special, and Chen Jie cannot stay here.

Maybe even taller than Tang Jianjun...

A few minutes later, Chen Jie answered the phone, delivered the soy milk to Li Yuan, and left.

A few minutes later, the door was opened, and Li Yuan saw a little old man and two people walking in from the outside.

However, the two parties did not say hello immediately. The people brought by the other party checked the entire room and used some instruments.

The inspection lasted for ten minutes. It wasn't until Li Yuan finished drinking the soy milk and the two people responsible for the inspection left that the two parties officially spoke for the first time.

Li Yuan said: "I really never thought that you would come here in person."

"I've always wanted to meet you, but it's not easy to find an opportunity. I just happened to be passing by Jiangzhou this time, and the timing was coincidental..."

Li Yuan said softly: "Whoever makes the rules, it is just a coincidence for whom. I am young and energetic. If I say something unpleasant, don't take it to heart. Sooner or later, I will be beaten up by the society, and I will slowly die." Mature.”

Although it was a bit unexpected today, it was still reasonable.

There are not many people that Chen Jie can avoid, and you can guess it if you think about it carefully.

The little old man in front of him is the real God of Wealth.

The money handled every year starts from more than 10 trillion yuan.

After sitting down, the God of Wealth said with a smile: "Look what you said, I'm not here to show off to you, what's wrong with you? But what you just said is very good, the one who makes the rules You can only talk about coincidences. If you can't make rules, you can only accept them. I think you are the kind of person who can make rules..."

Li Yuan still doesn't understand what the God of Wealth wants from him.

He is not a member of the system, and with the stains on his body, he will never be able to enter it in this life.

"You overestimate me too much. I can only play in individual stocks and compete with so many people. I am not worthy of the real gaming field."

To put it bluntly, to play stocks, you only need to figure out what others are thinking about in the next second, but in the game of great powers, you often need to think about what others will do in the next few years.

It is basically impossible to guess it completely correctly, but even if you can only guess a general direction, it will be very scary.

After all, the game between great powers is not about gains and losses of tens of billions of dollars, but more that cannot be measured in terms of money.

The God of Wealth smiled and said: "Actually, it's nothing. They're all the same. What's the saying? If you don't seize the day, how can you keep track of the years?"

Li Yuan: "???, is there such a sentence?"

"Haha, that's pretty much what it means. If you are making waves in the U.S. stock market, you must have a good understanding of their system. Can I ask your opinion on the U.S. stock market?"

Li Yuan: "The U.S. stock market is nothing special. It is just a qualified reservoir. This is also its biggest advantage. After all, the so-called financial attribute is to find ways to reasonably increase the leverage of funds."

The God of Wealth nodded and continued to ask: "So are you optimistic about US stocks?"

"There's nothing I'm optimistic about or not. The market conditions have nothing to do with me."

"Huh? If the market is better, won't you earn more?"

"If the market goes bad, you will earn more. Generally speaking, I am most worried about whether the market is good or bad, and similarly, my opponents are also..."

The God of Wealth was stunned for a moment, Li Yuan's words were obvious.

That is, the U.S. stock market will not stay like this forever. It will either fall or rise.

The market is not falling now, it is just a normal retracement.

If the U.S. stock market wants to fall by 30 or 40 points, unless there is a systemic risk, even if interest rates are raised, it will only hover around 10 or 20 points at most.

Fifteen years ago, U.S. stocks were always in a rate hike cycle. There were retracements and gaps were filled, but overall there was no downward trend.

Except for that one time in 2008.

Li Yuan probably means that US stocks will rise.

And what is the logic of the rise?

I can't think of anything else besides draining the US dollar.

Global deflation has forced the United States to launch a trade war in order to bring manufacturing back home.

After raising interest rates in the past few years, the U.S. dollar has been falling in the past two years, but liquidity has never increased. They are eager to make the U.S. dollar flow, and manufacturing is the biggest direction.

The domestic manufacturing industry in the beautiful country has almost disappeared in recent years.

At first, they only wanted to bring low-end manufacturing to developing countries, but as they continued to do so, they discovered that finance brings in money faster and the service industry is better.

Then the mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry also began to slowly lose.

In recent years, their high-end manufacturing industry has been supported by only a few dozen companies. Even so, those high-end manufacturing industries are still being impacted by China's manufacturing industry.

And their two experience babies, Tiaobaji and Nanbang, have been unable to inject fresh blood into them due to the decline in their share of mid- to high-end manufacturing industries.

So their entity list came out.

A-share bears didn’t even look at it, and the turnover of the two cities once fell to 400 billion.

It’s already May and there’s no sign of improvement.

The God of Wealth sighed and said: "If the U.S. dollar weakens, it will be difficult for global assets... We will either follow suit, or we will have to suffer the pain caused by currency appreciation..."

"Um."

Li Yuan did not express an opinion. This matter had nothing to do with him.

But the God of Wealth is right. The drain on the US dollar is not good news for China.

Follow and release the water? If there is a lack of reservoirs in the country, where does the released water go?

Continue infrastructure construction? real estate?

Housing prices can no longer rise. If they continue to rise, once the bubble is burst, systemic risks will instantly arise.

Even now, we have reached a very subtle point, and many first-tier cities have begun to restrict purchases and sales...

Currency appreciation? That’s even more uncomfortable!

China is the world's largest manufacturing country. If the currency appreciates, it will be a black swan event for product exports. At that time, exports will shrink and the national economy may become depressed.

A lesson learned from the past is what happened thirty years ago, the Plaza Accord...

The content of the Plaza Accord was to require the appreciation of their currencies. At the beginning, the citizens of Tiaobenji felt that this was good news, and the money in their hands became more valuable.

But within a few months, they found that their products could not be sold.

After the currency appreciates, others who want to import their products have to pay a greater cost, which is equivalent to importing things becoming more expensive.

If it is too expensive, it will lose the market.

After losing the market, the company will naturally lay off employees, which will be compounded by their original real estate bubble. After the layoffs, the real estate bubble will eventually burst, triggering systemic financial risks.

To put it bluntly, they are the experience babies of the beautiful country, and the beautiful country has many ways to harvest them.

The God of Wealth was a little disappointed when he saw Li Yuan's attitude.

Said: "Li Yuan, just the two of us today, let's talk freely... How about we assume that the US dollar is drained and what should the country do to stabilize the basic market? How about we have a war game?"

Li Yuan said with a dark face: "You overestimate me. I don't know what war games are. I can't even play chess."

Is it appropriate to ask an outsider such a thing?

If something goes wrong in the future, he might be considered a traitor.

He didn't want to discuss any confidential issues.

"Actually, it's very simple. It's nothing more than simulating a scene. How about I start it?"

"I haven't eaten yet."

"To make a long story short, I'll treat you to dinner later."

"No, no, no, that's inappropriate. I'm born to be strong, so I can't let others think that I achieved my current results just because of my connections, right?"

"???"

This kid is too sensitive.

"Isn't it true that you don't want to get into trouble? I'll tell you the truth. I came here specifically just to bring something with me! If you don't hand over some useful things, this matter won't be over!"

When Li Yuan heard this, he took out his mobile phone and said, "Then I'll start a recording."

"Why are you turning on the recording?"

"Let's clear it up first. This matter has nothing to do with me. I was just forced to answer some questions."

For Li Yuan, chatting is definitely beneficial, at least the road ahead will be much smoother.

But the risk issue must be considered. If he is asked to take risks, he would rather not say anything.

The little old man squinted his eyes and did not stop Li Yuan.

He wanted to see what Li Yuan could say.

It is not that they have not previewed the US dollar interest rate hike. They have even started planning it five years ago and have already implemented the first step.

If Li Yuan could see this step, he would be capable.

After Li Yuan finished it, he said: "Let's just assume that the dollar is drained. Is it better for us to appreciate the currency or to follow the drain?"

"Of course it's a two-pronged approach, because no matter how much we release money, we can't release more money than the U.S. dollar. We are the global currency, and there is enough market to accommodate it if we release tens of trillions or twenty trillion dollars. If we release tens of trillions of dollars, tomorrow A green onion costs fifty yuan."

Releasing water will inevitably lead to inflation. There will be more money on the market, the products are fixed, and the demand is fixed.

To absorb this money, everything will increase in price.

When the time comes, go to the second floor of the bathing center and ask for a 1999 package, which is enough to soak in a large pool. Do you want to go to a private room? There are no doors.

After all, a lot of people are willing to spend 19,999 to go to a private room.

Invisibly, the currency will depreciate.

Or a substantial depreciation.

Once something happens again, money will be no different than waste paper.

At that time, prices will be very chaotic and all problems will break out.

Li Yuan didn't speak politely. If the other person asked him such a question, he was destined to get such a response.

It's like asking a math professor what 1+1 equals.

The God of Wealth did not pay attention, but continued to ask: "Do you have any explanation for the two-pronged approach? How should we control the degree of this?"

"This issue is not something I should consider."

"In that case, let's not talk about appreciation. This is a little simpler and the operation is not complicated. But it is not that easy to release water. Where should the water flow? How about flowing into real estate? After all, the only thing that can store water in China is real estate. ”

Li Yuan: "It makes no sense to invest in real estate. Those who should get on the real estate train have already taken it. Those who shouldn't get on the real estate train will not get any dividends in their lives, but will become the targets of being squeezed."

"Where should that go? The stock market?"

"If you want to flow into the stock market, you should first kick out some of the foreign capital in it. Also, you need to rectify the entire industry, otherwise the majority will eventually be eaten up by foreign funds, because those domestic financial institutions are useless. , all he knows is following others and waving flags and shouting, others are eating and drinking enough, and even giving him a piece of bone makes him happy."

Li Yuan's words were sharper than before.

But the meaning is obvious. If the stock market wants to serve as a reservoir, it must first kick out those who are not firm in their stance to avoid bad things along the way.

The God of Wealth said: "Even so, most people will not be able to enjoy the dividends of investing in the stock market."

Li Yuan said: "This is another problem. We must first kick out the moths before we can discuss distribution."

"As for what you said today, once it gets out, I'm afraid you won't have a foothold in the country. So it's better not to record it. I'm afraid you might accidentally spread it."

Li Yuan smiled and said: "It's okay. If you can't keep up with the domestic content, you can go abroad. Wherever you go, you can't even get a bite to eat."

"..."

He discovered that Li Yuan was really as unpleasant as he said at the beginning.

But he didn’t come here to hear any good words.

So he continued to ask: "Then if water is released in the stock market, do you know what will happen to the property market?"

"Well, it plummeted..."

Once the stock market starts to rise and a long-term trend occurs, some funds in the real estate market will pour in, causing the real estate market to collapse.

But Li Yuan then said: "Aren't there already purchase and sale restrictions? Just lock yourself in. It's just that the purchase and sale restrictions are not very strong now. It's better to just push them to the end and let the price of new houses go upside down. , second-hand houses cannot be sold. It doesn’t matter even if a few units are not sold. As long as there is no transaction, the funds can only stay in the property market. Isn’t this what you have planned for a long time? It started a few years ago... Do you have to ask this too?”