Chapter 790 Good Opportunity Under Economic Recession

Chapter 790 Good Opportunity Under Economic Recession

"The second way of thinking is to give priority to controlling inflation, that is, first implement tight fiscal and monetary policies to reduce inflation, but at the same time sacrifice more employment, and then implement expansionary monetary policies, in conjunction with tax cuts, privatization, and industrialization. Supply policies such as upgrading, jointly promote the expansion of aggregate supply, and ultimately achieve the goal of increasing output and increasing employment. This was the strategy chosen by Thatcher's cabinet from 1980 to 1984.

The advantage of this kind of policy is that controlling inflation is the primary policy goal, which helps to stabilize inflation expectations, and the real interest rate turns positive, thereby stabilizing the trend of people’s lower liquidity preferences. Even due to the high unemployment rate, people will increase their liquidity. Sexual preferences, the implementation of an expansionary monetary policy at this time will not directly cause inflation.

However, although excess liquidity can be temporarily absorbed by the people's liquidity preferences, the liquidity created by the expansionary monetary policy is excess after all. This excess liquidity will seek areas that can absorb it to store, and the asset market is A great place to go.

Therefore, in order to forcefully implement privatization reforms aimed at improving efficiency, Thatcher's cabinet launched financial liberalization reforms, which prompted the asset market to absorb this part of liquidity, which directly manifested itself in the rise of stock market prices and real estate prices.

From the data, the liquidity index measured by M2/GDP has increased significantly from 1980 to this year, and the EM index has been positive for consecutive years. However, there has been no serious inflation after 1982, but there has been asset The significant rise in prices and the significant positive real interest rates during this period mean that liquidity preferences have stabilized and can absorb all the liquidity released by the money supply without turning into inflation.

No matter which method is used to control stagflation, it will lead to a state of excess liquidity. The difference between the two is that the employment priority strategy will cause excess liquidity to turn to inflation, while the inflation priority strategy will cause excess liquidity to flow to the asset market. In the case of improved financial efficiency, the latter strategy will greatly increase the level of investment, thereby providing good monetary support for economic transformation and upgrading.

In fact, excess liquidity itself is a reflection of the turning point of the economy. How to use excess liquidity to carry out industrial upgrading and economic transformation is the root of coping with excess liquidity. Otherwise, the original economic development mode and financial The system is only trying to maintain full employment through fiscal policy and monetary policy, and the possibility of getting rid of stagflation is very small.

During the period of stagflation from 1970 to 1980, the real economic growth rate was 20.2%, the CPI rose by 260.3%, and the monetary standard currency rose by 316.7%. From the perspective of EM indicators, it was in a state of serious excess liquidity, while the real economic growth from 1980 to this year 29.8%, prices rose by 88.6%, and the standard currency rose by 599.4%. From the perspective of EM indicators, it is also in a state of excess liquidity.

Further, from the perspective of the change of currency plus quasi-money/GDP, the ratio dropped from 34.8% to 32.4% in 1970-1980, and rose to 93.7% in 1980, which shows that the liquidity in 1980-this year is higher than that in 1970-1980 year is much more relaxed.

However, stagflation occurred from 1970 to 1980, and the economic growth from 1980 to this year was relatively healthy. This shows that excess liquidity is not the inevitable cause of stagflation, and it may also be a good monetary condition for the economy to reform, transform and upgrade.

Due to the severe stagflation, the macroeconomic policy from 1979 to this year was mainly to control stagflation. Regarding excess liquidity, the authorities did not take it as a policy target. On the contrary, they used the theory of neoliberal economics to use The situation of excess liquidity has promoted policies to control stagflation, among which there are five main economic areas: tight fiscal policy, privatization reform of large enterprises, financial liberalization reform, weak pound policy and expansionary monetary policy.

1. Implementation of structural austerity fiscal policies aimed at improving industrial efficiency..."

"Okay, I'm not asking you to make economic reports. EM, GDP, M2, and M4 are of no practical significance to us. You should also leave some room for economists. If you are in a hurry, write a paper "From Nan Ruojin to Eat Changes in Milk Quantity Discussing the British Economy", just to put it simply, are you optimistic about the economic development of the UK in the next 20 years?"

"Of course, I am very optimistic." Catherine replied affirmatively.

"If there are 2 billion pounds, how will you invest them?" Nan Yi said and added: "Suppose, 500 million of the 2 billion pounds belong to our daughter."

"This is a big question, I have to think about it, and I'll tell you the answer later."

"Think slowly and go to bed now."

Close your eyes and it's dark, open your eyes and it's dawn.

The next day, Nan Yi fed the little princess breakfast in a flattering and embarrassing manner, changed into a set of clothes, sat in the garden to eat breakfast elegantly, and read the newspaper. Before eight o'clock, Huang Yingzi came to Boleyn Castle.

"Yingzi, have you had breakfast yet?"

"I have eaten fried dough sticks, buns, and a bowl of sweet soy milk. The boss just came from the mainland, and his breakfast has not been improved locally."

Nan Yi looked at the fried eggs, ham, bacon on his plate, as well as a cup of coffee and a glass of orange juice on the side, and always felt that his hospitality was superfluous.

"It's better to eat salty soy milk in the morning." Nanyi said stiffly.

"Do you need to wait until you finish eating?"

"No need, I don't have much appetite today." Nan Yi said, and called the maid Anna Robinson who was standing not far away, "Remove, let Matthew pour a cup of coffee for Miss Huang."

"Okay, sir."

"How do you see the London commercial real estate market in the next five years?" Nan Yi asked Huang Yingzi as soon as Anna walked away.

"It is not optimistic, the Canary Wharf Group will continue to lose money."

"It's really not good news. Five or six billion pounds have already been spent, and so many loans are still on the back. What about the next ten years?" Nan Yi frowned.

"Before entering the new century, it is difficult for Canary Wharf to see the day when the investment will be recovered, unless part of it is cashed out."

"That's impossible. Everyone knows that Canary is a good project. It has been invested for nearly six years, and it is not worthwhile to cash out now. Let it go, keep going, until the day when it makes a big profit."

Nanyi found that he was a little impulsive when he invested in the Canary Wharf project. Although he only needed to invest five or six billion pounds, he would have a great chance to recover more than ten billion pounds in the future. A return of more than 20 times sounds good, but it will take more than ten years of suffering in the middle Years, including compound interest rates and inflation, in fact, this business is not as good as the expected figures on the surface.

If it weren't for Nan's blood transfusion behind the scenes, this project would have a high probability of collapse. If a billionaire with assets of one billion pounds runs this project, it will either go bankrupt or the shares will be diluted in the middle. Big projects are really not so easy to do. .

"Then there is no other way but to wait for the market in London to improve."

"Early in the morning, don't talk about being frustrated, give me something that can make you happy."

"The happy thing is that the operation of Sun Never Set Capital is going well. Most of our external venture capital investment has obtained rich paper returns. Our family has not missed any companies worthy of investment in the UK, and we have invested in all we can invest in."

"This news is very exciting. The little girl has done a good job." Nan Yi said happily: "If there are 2 billion pounds to invest in the UK, how will you allocate them?"

"Coal, natural gas, hydraulic power, machinery, tourism, and the specific distribution proportions need to be investigated and studied in depth. Brother Nan, are you just asking casually, or do you have plans to increase investment in the UK?"

"There is a plan. In the next two years, Nan's will mobilize more funds to come to the UK. You should prepare first. I agree with the first four of the five areas you mentioned. As for the tourism industry, it is affected by politics, weather, and diseases." The impact is too great and there are too many uncontrollable factors. Don't make long-term and super-long-term plans, only make medium-term investments.

In terms of return expectations, the investment needs to be recovered within ten years at the most, and there must be a high return period of at least five years. Otherwise, there is no need to formulate a plan, even if you tell me that it is possible to get a thousand-fold or ten-thousand-fold return in thirty years. .

Also, you can pay attention to the field of transportation, highways and inland rivers, and submit a detailed investigation and analysis report before the end of this year. "

"Okay." Huang Yingzi nodded and said: "The FA has a plan to turn the First Division into a Super League, and will increase investment to expand its influence. Maybe we can invest a little in this area."

"Didn't we already invest in Chelsea? Damn, I have never paid attention to it, nor have I seen any reports related to this club, so Catherine just swallowed up Nan's shares?"

"Haha, no, the situation in Chelsea has just improved. In fact, Catherine and Secretary-General Ueto have posted a lot of money in it. It is explained in the Bolin Investment Report every six months. You probably missed it."

"hehe."

What Huang Yingzi said is correct. Nanyi just read the financial report and did not invest any more money in Chelsea, so he did not continue to pay attention to the specific affairs of Chelsea. He never expected to make a profit from Chelsea. The original purpose of acquiring it was to build a new life for Catherine. Let’s say, it’s fine if you don’t post money, and he really doesn’t care if it’s profitable or not, even if it’s profitable, it can’t bear his expectations.

After chatting with Huang Yingzi, Nanyi went to Bolin Holdings and communicated with Dun Stone again.

"Dunstone, what do you think of the UK joining the ERM?"

"I don't think it's a good thing for the UK."

"Be specific."

"Britain's accession to the ERM [European Exchange Rate Mechanism] means that if the pound is to be pegged to the Deutsche Mark, the exchange rate must be maintained within the range of 2.773-3.13. This will cause the British monetary policy to no longer be independent, but to become a passive follower of the German monetary policy. By.

The Bundesbank’s strategy to combat inflation is to tighten monetary policy. If Germany does this, the Bank of England must follow suit; constrained by the exchange rate mechanism, Downing Street cannot stimulate the economy by printing money as it pleases.

BOSS, I think that tightening monetary policy is not a good way to solve inflation. The enthusiasm of central banks for tightening monetary policy in the past 1980s has effectively controlled inflation, but the rhythm of regulation is simple and rude, which has paved the way for economic recession. the bane.

Before the end of the Cold War, the countries of the Warsaw Pact began to cut defense expenditures, reducing government fiscal expenditures; later, Iraq invaded Kuwait, causing a new round of oil crisis, and crude oil rose from US$17 to US$36 per barrel in two months, which was serious. affected consumer and investor confidence.

Monetary policy, consumers, and government spending are all headwinds, and a recession is inevitable.

This year, East and West Germany were completely unified. East Germans happily threw themselves into the embrace of free and wealthy West Germany, expecting to work in West Germany and enjoy social welfare. The related expenses caused the German government to have a large-scale fiscal deficit.

Other things being equal, deficits fuel inflation.

In the United States, the Fed’s monetary policy has two goals, ensuring low inflation and full employment; while the German Federation has only one goal, which is to combat inflation. The unification of East and West Germany has intensified inflationary pressure, and the Bundesbank will definitely choose to raise interest rates.

But now is the period of recession in other European economies, and everyone urgently needs to cut interest rates. Germany's high interest rates compared to other countries will cause a lot of money to buy Germany, the result is a weak European currency, especially the lira and the British pound.

I have read the data. The unemployment rate in the UK this year has risen compared to last year. Many of the unemployed people have mortgages on their backs. Home buyers are unemployed and naturally unable to repay their mortgages. According to our British tradition, unemployment will lead to riots, and The spearhead will be directed at the banks. I believe that several small and medium-sized banks will fail in the UK in the next year or two.

Bank failures will cause a chain reaction, and the British economy will fall into crisis.

If the UK had not joined the ERM, it could stimulate investment and consumption by cutting interest rates in the face of the economic crisis, but now it has joined. If the UK’s economic crisis occurs and Germany is still in the cycle of raising interest rates, then the UK’s rate cuts will lead to the depreciation of the pound The lower limit of the exchange rate agreed by ERM.

In order to prevent the exchange rate from falling out of the lower limit, the UK can also follow Germany to raise interest rates, but there is another problem here. The mortgage loan interest rates in the UK are usually floating. If the central bank raises interest rates, people will immediately have repayment pressure. The United Kingdom is in recession, and the road to raising interest rates is also blocked.

It cannot drop or increase, and the UK is in a passive position. At this time, if someone shorts the pound, bang..."

Dunstone made an explosive gesture, "The pound will depreciate immediately and fall out of the ERM exchange rate range."

Nan Yi nodded and said, "There is a question in your speculation. Will the Commonwealth Bank soften their position due to political pressure?"

Dunstone denied: "It is unlikely. The Bundesbank is independent from the German government and has great autonomy. After the establishment of ERM in 1979, ECU [which can be understood as the predecessor of the euro] was proposed. If there is a European Currency requires the establishment of a European bank, which will replace most of the functions of the current Bundesbank, and Schlesinger, the president of the Bundesbank, may not want to see this day come.”

"You think Schlesinger doesn't want to see a European currency?"

"Yes, I think so."

"Then there was a good opportunity to go long Mark at a certain time in the past, and there will be a good opportunity to short it at a certain time in the future?"

"Yes, there is still room for profit if you are long Mark." Dunstone said.

"Um."

The two then stopped talking about ERM, but chatted about the business of Bolin Holdings Investment.

After leaving Bolin Holdings, Nanyi called Scarlett.

"Scarlett, how much money do we have in Quantum Fund?"

"70 million."

"Who is in charge of the Quantum Fund now?"

"Stanley Druckenmiller, George and his family have moved to London."

"Hmm, how much profit do we make on Mark?"

"Not too much, spent 350 million U.S. dollars, and the profit is about 25%."

"I see."

"I'm busy. Say hello to Catherine for me."

"I'll pass it on."

"Aha, bitch, bye."

...

Afterwards, to make sure the anthrax crisis on Gruina was over, South Iden went to check on the progress of the X file.

The person in charge of the × file is Roger Delgado. Since he has the same name as the first actor of "Doctor Who" and also happens to be a doctor, he likes to be called "Doctor Who", Doctor Who.

After wandering around in the laboratory and visiting the glass jars containing all kinds of perverted things, Nan Yi finally found Roger.

"Doctor, do you have any good news for me?"

"Adam, what we are going to study is a very complicated subject. It is impossible to achieve great results in such a short period of time."

"There are no big results, do you mean there are small results?"

Roger took his eyes off the microscope, looked back at Nanyi and said: "I accidentally discovered that in an experiment, I accidentally synthesized a substance that has a miraculous effect on eliminating hepatitis C virus. If we continue to study, we should be able to produce a drug against hepatitis C virus." special medicine."

"So?"

"I don't have time to continue researching. I will prepare a research material and samples, and you will send someone to take them away."

Nan Yi really misses his mother. Hepatitis C is a huge market of tens of billions of dollars. In Roger's eyes, it is actually something that delays his serious research. It is really his grandma's.

"OK, I will send someone to take over. If a specific drug is developed in the future, the distribution of patent benefits needs to be discussed with the person who takes over the research."

"No, I'm not interested in money, I just need you not to cut off the funding of the x file." Roger said indifferently.

Nan Yi rubbed his temples, and said, "If you want me to keep funding, you must give me a little hope to continue investing from time to time."

"You can see it soon, as long as you don't waste my time." Said, Roger moved his eyes to the observation glass of the microscope again.

Yep, Nanyi is being seen off.

"OK, I'll leave right away." Nanyi shrugged and said.

Nanyi has always maintained enough respect for those who have real skills and can make money for him. Now it seems that Roger not only has real skills, but may immediately bring him tens of billions of dollars in profit returns. Therefore, Luo Jie ignored him, Nanyi said he didn't care.

Before leaving the island, he made a call to Third Biopharmaceutical and asked someone to come and connect immediately.

Leaving Gruina Island in a happy mood, Nan Yi showed Catherine his masculinity again and again, but in the morning exercise the next morning, he was out of breath.

This is a big problem. Apart from not being used to it when I first started doing morning exercises, when did Nanyi catch his breath?

The Nan's medical team here in London immediately rushed over to check his body. After a lot of tossing, the result was that he was in good health, but he was overworked and needed a little restraint. It was best to rest for a while.

This is not bad news for Nanyi. With the doctor's order, he can take a rest justifiably. Speaking of which, he and Catherine have been together for almost seven years. It will come soon.

That night, Nan Yi slept in Nan Ruojin's room. When she woke up the next morning, Nan Ruojin was lying on Nan Yi's chest, leaving a puddle of saliva on his pajamas.

Smiling, Nanyi picked up the little man and put it aside, carefully lifted the quilt and got out of bed.

"Morning!"

Walking out of Nan Ruojin's room, Nan Yi ran into Catherine who just came out of the master bedroom.

"Morning, go swimming?"

"Of course, swimming is the best form of exercise, together?"

"No, I will continue to stick to my exercise method." Nan Yi waved his hand, walked to the master bedroom, took two steps and then turned around and said, "By the way, I want to take Kate out for Chinese food for breakfast."

"I can't accompany you guys. The team has a game today, so I have to go to the club early." Catherine said regretfully.

"It's okay, you are busy with your work, today I will take Kate for a stroll outside."

"OK."

Nanyi's breakfast was not finished. When Nan Ruojin woke up, it was already 10:30 in the morning. After helping her wash up, the little man immediately clamored for something to eat. Nanyi's breakfast and lunch could only be oatmeal milk paste.

After eating, Nan Yi took Nan Ruojin to the street.

For three days in a row, Nanyi was with her daughter, and the trip to pay public food became a family joy.

Sophie Marceau is willful and wild. Nan Yi was in pain and happiness the night she first arrived in Paris.

Although he was tortured enough, the next day, Nan Yi went to the building at No. 1117 Housman Avenue in the ninth district. This building has become an asset of Sophie Holdings and named it Sophie Building.

"John, how are you doing recently? Is your life happy?" Entering Jean Bard's office, Nan Yi asked casually.

"Boss, great, the paid vacation time in France has increased, and I have more time to go on vacation."

Jean Bard made a harmless joke. As the helm of Sophie Holdings, Jean Bard would turn around when he was busy. When he was not busy, he could go on vacation at any time without caring about legal regulations. The lower limit of vacation time in France, although the lower limit in France is an upper limit that most other countries cannot touch.

"Ha, that's really good news." Nanyi sat across from Jean Bard and said casually, "I heard that the French people are falling in love with precautionary savings again?"

"Yes, it's really bad news, foreign investment is down, export trade is weak, most people's incomes are affected, and many households are putting off buying sustainable durable goods [goods that last more than three years, such as big appliances. , meaning major expenditures], the economic winter is coming.”

"That's bad news, John. Among the bad news, is there any good news?"

"Certainly, health services have developed into the most dynamic household consumption item, because it does not depend on the economic situation, but on social security and demographic changes.

More than 40 years ago, France lost too many male labor forces. In the cities of the National Immigration Agency, a large number of foreign workers came to France. In reality, white people from other European countries came here, and then black Africans came here. "

Jean Bard spread his hands, "Since the Paris Commune, we have mastered the traditional skills of strikes, and now we have to show them every year to promote traditional culture, which makes capitalists...we have a great favor for hardworking black Africans." add.

After the economic slowdown in the 1960s, not only failed to send away the foreign workers who had already arrived, but more black Africans came in. In the 1970s, hell, shit like a big country, the workers were brought back before they were sent away. large numbers of African refugees. "

Jean Budd's face was no longer graceful, replaced by ferocity and cursing.

"The outsiders try their best to come in every year, the insiders try their best to give birth, the damn newborn subsidy, many blacks don't work, and concentrate on giving birth at home, one a year, one football team in eleven years, and more births in good years A few, I just read in the newspaper the other day that a black man had quintuplets."

"John, put your complaints aside, you can go out to sea on a yacht during your break, or go to your vineyard and swear at the grapes."

"Okay, let me get to the point." Jean Bard paused and said: "Because the newborns are mainly black, and most of them are from sub-Saharan Africa, many newborns have the epidemic of South Africa. Disease sickle cell anemia.

Not only are these black people subsidized, they will not starve to death if they don’t work, and the government will also help them rent cheap apartments. Whether it is the Paris public hospital group or the medical-related enterprises, they are developing well.

Sophie Holdings will invest heavily in the health service industry in the coming year, and I will submit a proposal soon. "

"Hmm, what do you think of other service industries?"

"The increase in paid vacation time will lead to changes in people's living habits, the entertainment and tourism industries will grow in leaps and bounds, and with the deepening of urbanization, the transportation industry will also rise.

Today, tourism employs nearly as many people as automakers, and retailing employs more workers than construction and public works.

Since the mid-1970s, the service industry has been creating jobs, while the number of industrial employees has plummeted. Without the support of the service industry, the unemployment rate has more than doubled in the past few years.

In the future, no matter which party comes to power, it will need to face the problem of reducing the unemployment rate, and will naturally support the development of the service industry. Under such a background, enterprises in the service industry and retail industry are good investment targets.

For example: Carrefour Retail Group, Promode Retail Group, Leclerc Supermarket Group, New Frontier Travel Company, Sodexo Alliance, Capgemini Consulting;

There are also Publicis Groupe and Lingzhi Advertising in the advertising industry, or Kering Group, which wants to enter the retail field and is mainly engaged in the wood business, all have good prospects and are worthy of our investment. "

"It's a good idea. I personally agree with it. I will issue a report for the Intelligence Policy Committee to evaluate."

"OK."

"joint……"

As soon as Nan Yi uttered a word, he felt a heavy wrist. He looked down and saw a baby monkey lying there, staring at him with big dark orange eyes.

"Girl or boy?" Nan Yi pointed to the baby monkey and said to Jean Bard.

"Girl, my daughter, Charlotte, come here."

Following Jean Bard's call, the baby monkey Charlotte jumped into Jean Bard's hands after jumping two times and three times.

Jean Bard rubbed Charlotte's stomach, raised his head and said to Nanyi: "Charlotte is very good, I usually bring her to the office, Charlotte, to play."

"It's good to take your daughter to work, it can relax your spirit a little bit, but, Charlotte is Princess Mary Mary Therese Charlotte?"

"Yes, Rose de France, she is very beautiful and worthy of the name." Jean Bard said, looking at Charlotte.

"As long as you are happy, do you have time tonight?"

"have."

"Well, Bel Canto at night, the one on Commander Street, not the City Hall pier."

"OK."

"No need to send it, I will go by myself."

Nan Yi persuaded Jean Bard, who was about to get up, to leave the Sophie Building alone.

In the afternoon, Nan Yi and Sophie Marceau flew to Monaco, flew leisurely, and landed in Provence in less than an hour, then transferred to No. 20 helicopter, and landed at Monte Carlo Airport in a short while.

Monaco is too small, with an area of ​​less than 1.7 square kilometers. In China, it is not as large as the production teams under some large production teams in the past. The planting area is large. If you fart in the east, you can smell it in the west. There is not enough space for it. Build an airport.

"We should come over in May, when we can watch the Formula One Championship." After getting off the plane, Sophie Marceau said with a smile, holding Nanyi's arm.

"Haven't you come?"

"Of course I'm here, but it's a pity that I'm the only one. Let me tell you that I was sunbathing on the yacht in May without clothes. I'm not sure if anyone saw it." Sophie Marceau said with a smirk.

"Heh...heh, when you took this sentence as a joke, did you feel a chill in the back of your head? There is no doubt, there is already a gun pointed at your head, as long as my smile is put away, the trigger will be will be detained."

Sophie Marceau reached out and grabbed Nanyi's cheek, "Haha, then keep laughing."

The two laughed and walked out of the airport, without taking a car, they walked directly into the traffic on the street.

We all know that Monaco is rich, but it’s not that the indigenous people with less than 5,000 people are rich. At that time, Monaco was very polarized.

However, there are quite a few wealthy people here. The streets are full of luxury cars, mainly sports cars. There are also many people who take leisurely walks or walk their dogs.

"Stroll on the street first, or go directly to the boat?"

Sophie Marceau has a yacht called Flats No. 3 that is docked at the beach of Monaco. If she is unhappy or too happy, she will fly to Monaco to sunbathe on the yacht.

"No, go to the casino first."

"Can."

Sophie Marceau likes to go to the casino, but Nanyi's behavior towards her is uncharacteristic, neither supporting nor opposing, because Sophie Marceau only likes to play slot machines, and doesn't care about winning or losing. Not too much gambling.

I don’t like to gamble with people around me. Nanyi is afraid that the gambling will become too serious, and he doesn’t care about the money that will be lost in small gambles. Buying luxury goods is a waste of money, and eating delicious food is also a waste of money. Since playing slot machines can make Sophie · Marceau is happy and won't get involved in gambling, so why stop him?

After a while, Nan Yi and the two came to the Paris Cafe, and after a few steps, they came to the Monte Carlo Casino.

The opening of this casino can be traced back to 130 years ago, and there are two regulations that provide people with a face: visitors must wear dresses to enter the casino, and they must pay an entry fee.

A small country with few people breaks the rules, the rich, the sons of officials, mercenaries, gambling gods, no matter what their identities are, they can all be slapped in the face here.

Nanyi felt that there was still a long way to go before being rich, so he stopped pretending and paid the entrance fee honestly. When he entered the casino, he exchanged two small baskets of coins, and he and Sophie Marceau went straight to Slot machine.

Not in a hurry to start playing, Sophie Marceau first popularized the slot machine gameplay for him, and then told him which machine was about to explode, and it was time to vomit outside, and finally helped Nanyi choose a slot machine that was played by someone , Let Nan Yi wait for the man sitting in front of the slot machine to lose.