Chapter 1007 Cockroach Effect

Chapter 1007 Cockroach Effect

Last year, when Zhao Shixian's due date was approaching, she suddenly fell in love with Tangning.

Organize the refrigerator, store toilet paper, grab the servant's buddy, clean the whole house, and vacuum every corner.

I also used a toothbrush as a cleaning tool to try to scrub every crevice in the baby's room, washed all the sheets, quilts and clothes, and kept washing and sorting Nan Ruoqi's clothes.

This is not a manifestation of prenatal depression, but a return to the original maternal instinct, the technical term is called "nesting reaction".

Nest building is the instinct of all animals, and each member of a certain animal has a typical, stereotyped behavior pattern that will act in a fixed pattern after receiving a set of special stimuli.

It is fixed genetically and emerges one by one during ontogeny with maturity and appropriate stimulating experiences. Foraging, self-defense, and reproductive actions, such as bird nesting, bee making honey, and chicken hatching eggs, are all innate instinctive behaviors of a specific species.

Instinct is not just a partial response to simple stimuli, but a series of behavioral activities carried out according to a predetermined program. For example, in the nesting of birds, it can skillfully select and place nesting materials, and pluck its own feathers and arrange them in the nest.

Instinct is a reflex activity formed by animals during the evolution of the race and fixed and passed on to the offspring. Although the program of instinctive behavior may be complex or simple, and the duration may be long or short, they are all common to the same species of animals. It is of great significance to maintain the survival of animal races and reproduce offspring.

As higher animals, not all human beings have inherited the instinct to build nests, but the nostalgia, dependence and pursuit of nests have all been inherited without exception.

As generations reproduce and evolve, human beings become more and more dependent on the nest and have higher and higher requirements. In order to strengthen the inheritance of this gene, the gene reorganizes and upgrades itself, and writes this inheritance into the courtship gene.

When male humans court female humans, they will use a small piece of paper recognized by many humans to represent his nest and show it to female humans for appreciation. The more pieces of paper, the larger the nest area represented, and the more female humans can get. recognition and admiration.

This behavior is sourly called "money worship" by male humans who have no pieces of paper or only old pieces of paper.

The earliest real estate bubble in human history occurred in 1926 in Florida, USA. This statement is right and wrong. This is because the concept of bubble economy and real estate bubble appeared very late. When they appeared and then went back to history, it was found that the earliest can only be traced back to the real estate bubble in Florida. lack of supporting data.

Some people say that human beings have never learned the lessons of history, and history is just the same thing repeating itself.

Regardless of whether this sentence is true or not, or whether there are theoretical loopholes, at least human beings have never learned the lessons of real estate bubbles. Nine real estate crises out of ten, the bubble incidents are constantly recurring.

Real estate is the mother of the cycle. In terms of driving economic growth, the real estate industry has played a vital role in the macroeconomics in both developing and developed countries.

Every economic boom is mostly related to consumption and investment driven by real estate, while every great economic depression is mostly related to the bursting of the real estate bubble.

From the perspective of wealth effect, in a typical country, the market value of real estate is generally 2-3 times the annual GDP, which is 50% of the total wealth with variable prices. far beyond comparison.

After World War II, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries and regions successively achieved sustained rapid growth, which was once called the "Asian Miracle".

From the late 1980s to the early 1990s, affected by the Persian Gulf War, the third oil crisis, the bursting of the Japanese economic bubble, and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the U.S. economy was in a sluggish performance and the U.S. dollar index weakened.

At the same time, the economies of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Lijiapo and other countries achieved rapid growth of about 10% during this period, attracting a large amount of international capital to flow into South Asia, and the scale of external debt increased significantly.

Debt maturities in these regions are seriously mismatched, and a large amount of short-term and medium-term foreign debt has entered the field of real estate investment. In Thailand and other countries, real estate speculation is prevalent, and asset bubbles continue to expand.

In terms of exchange rate policy, while expanding financial liberalization and canceling capital controls, Thailand and other countries still maintain a fixed exchange rate system, which provides conditions for international speculative capital.

In the mid-1990s, the U.S. economy began to recover strongly. The Federal Reserve under the leadership of Greenspan raised the federal funds rate to deal with possible inflation risks, and the dollar entered the second round of strong cycle. South Asian countries with fixed exchange rates were forced to appreciate their currencies, weakening their export competitiveness.

At the same time, the renminbi depreciated sharply, Huaguo showed strong competitiveness in attracting foreign investment and increasing exports, and the world's manufacturing production base was shifting to Huaguo.

In June 1984, Thailand began to implement the exchange rate system of pegging to a "basket of currencies". %.

The central bank of Thailand publishes the central exchange rate every day, and the floating range is ±0.02% of the central exchange rate. Under this institutional arrangement, the exchange rate of the Thai baht to the U.S. dollar has been maintained at a level of 25:1 for a long time, becoming a de facto peg to the U.S. dollar.

From 1984 to 1995, the US dollar continued to weaken against major currencies, and the Thai baht depreciated accordingly, which improved Thailand's export competitiveness. During this period, Thailand's economy grew at an annual rate of about 8%, becoming the "Four Asian Tigers" that attracted worldwide attention.

This year, the international foreign exchange market has reversed. The exchange rate of the US dollar against major currencies has turned from depreciation to appreciation. The Thai baht has followed the US dollar to appreciate sharply, which has had a serious negative impact on exports.

From 1991 to 1995, the average annual growth rate of Thailand's exports was 18.17%. At present, there has been a sharp decline.

In fact, even without the reversal of the US dollar exchange rate, the long-term implementation of the peg system will weaken the export competitiveness of enterprises. In other words, the peg system shields the exchange rate risk, coupled with the artificial underestimation of the domestic currency, makes foreign trade companies rely on low prices and lose competition incentives.

Thailand's economy is mainly driven by exports, and the decline in exports led to a rapid expansion of Thailand's current account deficit. In the early 1990s, Thailand had a current account deficit. This year it has reached US$11.5 billion, accounting for 8.3% of GDP, higher than Mexico's 7.2% before the financial crisis last year.

Under normal circumstances, when a country's current account has a deficit, the foreign exchange market will automatically adjust the exchange rate level to depreciate the local currency, thereby reducing the export cost of the country's commodities, increasing exports, and achieving a balance of payments.

However, under the peg system, because the exchange rate of the Thai baht is artificially fixed, it loses its function of adjusting the balance of payments.

Facing the ever-expanding current account deficit, the Thai government had to speed up the opening of the capital market and attract a large inflow of foreign capital through various preferential policies, including foreign exchange liberalization policies and high interest rate policies.

Thailand has taken two important measures in opening up its capital account. One is to open up offshore financial services and launch the Bangkok International Financial Facility (BIBF).

Under this framework, the Bank of Thailand has issued BIBF operating licenses to 15 Thai commercial banks and 35 Thai branches of foreign commercial banks. All approved commercial banks can absorb deposits and borrowing from abroad, and then in Thailand OUT- IN and foreign OUT-OUT loan in foreign currency.

The second is that Thailand allows non-residents to open baht accounts in Thai commercial banks to make deposits or borrow money, and they can be freely exchanged. So far, there are not many capital projects that have not been opened in Thailand.

In order to make up for the huge deficit in the current account, Thailand also borrowed heavily in foreign debts. Not only the scale of foreign debts expanded rapidly, but also the structure of foreign debts was seriously unbalanced.

In 1992, Thailand's external debt was US$39.6 billion, which increased to US$75 billion this year, which is equivalent to 50% of GDP. On average, each Thai person bears US$1,560 in external debt. Among them, short-term foreign debt accounted for about 45%.

In addition, the private sector has borrowed a large amount of foreign debt, and the assets and liabilities of enterprises and banking institutions have currency mismatches. Moreover, short-term debts in foreign currencies are mainly used for long-term investment in domestic non-trading sectors, especially real estate. When the Thai currency was forced to depreciate and interest rates rose, the debt burden increased, raising liquidity and solvency problems.

The peg system is actually an implicit guarantee for exchange rate risks provided by the government. Under this institutional arrangement, the Thai government provides implicit guarantees for exchange rate risks to domestic enterprises, financial institutions, investors, and international creditors. .

As the peg system shielded the exchange rate risk, it caused a large inflow of speculative capital. In 1989, the outflow and inflow of foreign private capital to Thailand were about 100 billion baht respectively, and in 1994 they reached about 1.5 trillion baht respectively, an increase of more than 10 times in four years.

Moreover, among these capitals, short-term capital accounts for a larger proportion and grows faster.

Year-to-date, non-resident baht deposits, corporate short-term US dollar borrowing via BIBF, and foreign investment in the stock market have increased sharply.

Thailand's economic growth has slowed markedly due to a sharp drop in exports. At this time, it is necessary to implement expansionary monetary policy and lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth. However, since the Thai baht is facing huge depreciation pressure, in order to maintain the exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar, the Bank of Thailand is forced to implement a tightening monetary policy and continue to raise interest rates.

The Thai baht deposit and loan interest rate reached an average of 15%, which was the highest level in Asia at that time and more than twice the international average level.

The high interest rate policy further suppressed investment and consumption, exacerbated the economic recession, and worsened the non-performing assets of commercial banks, making the precarious Thai economy even worse. This further increases the pressure on the depreciation of the Thai baht, providing an opportunity for international speculators.

There are tens of millions of retail investors in the global stock market, and many of them are smart people. They will not only listen to inside information, but also pay attention to the financial news of a country and even the world. Once a global economic crisis occurs, they can often be a few hours or even a few hours earlier than other retail investors. God got the news.

In a dilapidated house, they can always spot cockroaches crawling around first, but according to the law of cockroaches, when they see a cockroach in the light, it means that there are too many cockroaches in the dark to hide. Similarly, when ordinary people feel that the economic crisis is coming, it means that the economy has been eroding for a long time in an unobtrusive corner.

This is the case with Thailand’s stock market. It didn’t fall until the Soros attack in 1998 as it should have. In fact, it was a little earlier, and it was already showing decline in 1993, which was earlier than 1995.

If the Thai stock market starts from 100 points in 1987, it has risen by more than six times by the end of 1993, and then stayed at a high level and fluctuated sideways. That is to say, by the end of 1993, the Thai stock market had already reached its peak. There simply isn't enough support.

A PY Securities team led by Nian Lufu and a creative real estate team formed the "Hong Kong-Thailand Friendship Promotion Association". He showed a fearless spirit of internationalism, carried forward the candle style, burned himself to illuminate others, and contributed a lot to the sublimation of the friendship between Hong Kong and Thailand.

In May of this year, the Thai stock market fluctuated more and more, revealing a little room for earning securities lending costs. Zhao Shixian rushed to Bangkok to express condolences to the traders who were on business trips in Thailand, worked hard, and their health was deteriorating. , and came to the front line in person again, boosting morale with the attitude of a royal conquest.

Surrounding Sukhumvit is the commercial center of the entire Thailand. Surrounding the east area of ​​downtown Bangkok, the golden area of ​​the Sukhumvit central axis main road has the EM business district, an upper-class residential area known to everyone in Bangkok.

In the EM business circle, there is a place called "Phrom Phong", which is transliterated as "Pengpeng". It has another name called "Bangkok Little Japan". According to the abbreviation of the people in Beijing, it can also be called "Manxiao".

Phrom Phong has had Japanese people living here since a long time ago. From the small-scale investment of Japanese companies in Thailand in the 1970s to the large-scale entry of Japanese companies into Thailand in the past two years, Phrom Phong has become a veritable Japanese-inhabited area. A large number of Japanese restaurants and high-end apartments.

At the same time, Phrom Phong is also an area where Thailand's dignitaries like to live, and many local Thai rich and officials live here.

In the Pengpeng area, there is a not-so-famous but very distinctive "building". It has a very domineering name - Wangmu Tianting Building. If the height of the lightning rod is also counted, the building is 27.45 meters high and has five floors above the ground. Two floors underground.

There are many spray-painted fruits on the outer wall of the building, which are colorful and very realistic. Anyone who looks at it can think of the business of the company in the building.

This is where the global headquarters of Wangmu Fruit Industry is located. In theory, most of the instructions of Wangmu Fruit Industry to its branches are issued from here. In fact, Rama Pubippon often travels around the world. Wherever he is, the instructions come from Where is it issued.

Today, the fifth floor of Wangmu Tianting Building is temporarily borrowed by the Hong Kong-Thailand Friendship Promotion Association, and people from PY Securities and Creativity Real Estate are working here.

"President, the payment request email has been sent out, and I just received an email from the lizard people. They want us to scan Dusit products in Bangkok in the secondary market."

Xie Yuying, Zhao Shixian's secretary, sent the email and came to report to Zhao Shixian.

"Lizardman?" Zhao Shixian asked suspiciously, "Which company is this?"

"The email is signed by the Lizardman of the medical team, it is a capital company, and the sender is Biggs." Xie Yuying said with eyes shining.

"Biggs from the Yale Endowment?"

"It's him."

"The capital company of the medical team is interesting." Zhao Shixian said thoughtfully, "I haven't received a notification before, Yu Ying, is this a new company?"

"It should be. I just checked the log. Half an hour ago, the information of the lizardman was added to the email address book."

Zhao Shixian turned the chair and faced the window, "Dusit Bangkok Medical Services is the parent company of Bangkok Hospital. The medical team is thinking about Bangkok Hospital, Ah Mai."

As Zhao Shixian's voice fell, not far from the computer, the trader Ah Mai responded: "It is adjusting... the real time is 325 baht, and yesterday's closing price was 325.3 baht. The turnover rate is not high."

"Eat into 10 hands."

[Thailand stock market SET: For stocks with a single share price below 500 baht, the minimum trading volume is 1 lot = 100 shares; for stocks with a single share price above 500 baht, the minimum trading volume is 1 lot = 50 shares, which will not be described later. ]

Amai: "It's done."

"Follow two days and collect information."

Amai: "OK."

Zhao Shixian stretched out his hand and tapped a few times on the keyboard, and shouted: "Siam Cement, 50,000 hands."

"Done."

"National Petroleum, sell 8,000 lots."

"..."

Zhao Shixian's orders were given very frequently. The traders kept typing on the keyboard, buying and selling, sometimes making a small profit, and sometimes making a small loss. Bit by bit flows into the account.

The profit is really meager. The principal is tens of millions of baht. The profit of a transaction may only be tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, or even negative. When the stock market is not moving, it is like this.

Of course, Zhao Shixian is not concerned about these humble profits. She is familiarizing herself with SET, and she is gradually getting to know every potential opponent and feeling the opponent's operating style.

Compared with the tense but not dignified atmosphere on the side of PY Securities, the atmosphere on the other side of the fifth floor, Creativity Real Estate, seemed a bit dignified.

In the United States, the signs of an Internet investment boom have already risen. Various websites represented by Real Online and Yahoo have attracted frenzied pursuit of European and American funds, and various capitals have mobilized funds from all over the world to speculate in Internet stocks.

In this context, European and American funds began to sell real estate in Southeast Asia one after another, taking profits and exiting. This is a bit fatal. The properties in the hands of Creativity Real Estate have not been fully sold. In Thailand and Malaysia, there are still more than 1,000 apartments in their hands.

The Malaysian side is okay, but there are already bad signs on the Thai side. This is because Thailand’s apartment market system is very special in terms of management. Since foreign customers are prohibited from buying detached houses, its apartments are in fact facing foreign investors, and many of them are built directly by European and American funds. Buy.

Now that foreign investors are selling their properties one after another, the local residents simply cannot afford the high housing prices.

Jekapan, the person in charge of Creativity Real Estate in Thailand, was a little irritable. He had originally implemented the strategy of not earning the last copper coin, but who knew that those ghosts and animals in Europe and the United States would also slip away so fast. A customer refuses to let go.

After clicking the mouse and seeing the email reply agreeing to sell at a reduced price, Jaykapan breathed a sigh of relief, quickly picked up the phone and dialed out, giving the latest instructions.

Even if the remaining 400 apartments in Thailand are in the hands, the investment of Creativity Real Estate in Thailand has already made a lot of money, but if this is the case, things will become less than perfect, which is not what Jekapan wants Yes, he wanted a perfect ending.

The real estate plan in Seoul is still in the early stage of collecting chips. Jekapan wants to compete for the position of the person in charge in Seoul. You must know that this not only involves a large dividend, but also related to the promotion evaluation later.

After making the phone call, Jekapan opened the two safes behind the executive desk, took out the documents from them, and read them one by one. The documents he had read were divided into two piles, and one pile was sent to Pattaya for archiving , a bunch of them were to be taken to the roof and destroyed.

Creativity Real Estate has not only bought many apartments in Bangkok, but also bought many detached houses and construction land using the identity of the Thai staff of Wangmu Fruit Industry and the drawer agreement. The part of the drawer agreement is to be destroyed.

The house and the land have already been sold, and keeping the information will only make it easier for others to pull the pigtails.

...

"Good morning, is this Mr. Joachim Sauter?"

In Berlin, Germany, Heinz, the president of Gaojue Satellite, came to a company called "ART+COM". After entering the office, he met a thin man with curly hair and glasses.

Joachim Soter looked at Heinz who was speaking, "I am, may I ask who you are?"

"Gaojue Satellite, Heinz."

Hearing Heinz's words, Joachim Sauter stood up excitedly, "Mr. Heinz, are you here for TerraVision (Terrain Visualization System)?"

"Yes." Heinz smiled, "Can I have a cup of coffee?"

Shennong Nanliang has always had a plan - the combination of satellite remote sensing + camera + large surveillance aircraft + drone + various sensing devices to establish an all-terrain, all-round, and no-dead-angle agricultural visualization system.

The internal code name is "Prophet", which can be translated as a prophet or a prophet. This system is to realize real-time observation of every piece of land, every crop, and every animal in Shennong Nanliang, and provide unmanned agriculture that can only be realized after a long time. Carry out exploration and technology accumulation.

In the foreseeable future, all the animals and plants of Shennong Nanliang can be tracked and tracked through SPAM (microorganism, genetic biological chain) from birth to disappearance, from fields, farms to slaughterhouses, and then to the table. observe.

If the Research Institute of Human Forbidden Areas makes a breakthrough in the research of bioelectric manipulation and hippocampus, the animal husbandry of Shennong Nanliang will enter the science fiction era. Raising livestock is like raising imbecile children. When they are hungry, sick, or sick, they will send out alarms. , will take the initiative to eat, take the initiative to go for a walk, and will take the initiative to return to the nest, and even queue up obediently, and take the initiative to walk into the slaughterhouse.

In the longing, all this is beautiful, but to realize it, we have to take it step by step.

Last year, ART+COM was commissioned by Berkom (the predecessor of Deutsche Telekom) to build a fully virtual 3D model of the earth, the TerraVision terrain visualization system. Based on satellite imagery and geographic 3D data, it navigates seamlessly into buildings.

A few months ago, Nanyi learned about this incident from Gaojue Communication Group's report email. He was instantly shocked and shouted three shit, isn't this the concept of Google Earth.

So, he remembered a piece of news he had read in a technology forum in Silicon Valley in his previous life, saying that Google Earth was inspired by a German company, and the patent was also bought from this company, and it was after many years of litigation thing.

Nan Yi didn't know whether the company in the news was ART+COM, but at least before that, he hadn't heard anyone put forward such a concept in public channels.

Regardless of whether it is true or not, if there is a date or not, it will be two shots. If there is a sign, invest first. Anyway, self-research will not stop. Even if ART+COM fails in the end, the inspiration gained can be worth the loss of investment.

Nan Yi didn't know that Heinz had come to the door at this moment, and he was holding a warm towel to stick his dirty buttocks, to deal with the aftermath of Nan Ruoqi who had just given him a dip.

After dealing with it, he threw the warm towel aside, Nan Yi put his hand under his nose and smelled it, then smiled at Nan Ruoqi and said, "Mmm, stinky, you stinky."

As if she understood Nanyi's words, Nan Ruoqi volleyed in the air with her small hands, grabbed Nanyi, and responded with a string of garbled codes: "Baba, %￥#@..."

Nan Yi hurriedly went to the bathroom to wash his hands, and when he returned, he pinched Nan Ruoqi's little hand, brought it to his mouth for a while to kiss, and after eating enough of his little hand, he picked through the pile of rattles for a while, and picked out the one that Nan Ruoqi didn't like. He played with the multi-color combination rattle, and when she rang it happily, he freed his hand to turn on the portable TV beside him.

Plug in the earphones, turn up the volume to the maximum, don't wear them, just put the earphones aside, listen to the weak voice, and watch the news broadcast on TV.

As dinner was approaching, Emma brought Ding Yiku to visit Nanyi. She was passing by and was about to go to Yangcheng to serve as the president of Wuwai Company, a branch of SGF in China.

Due to the differences in diet structure between the East and the West, in addition to adhering to the SGF service concept, Wuwai Company will be relatively independent from SGF, form its own procurement and supply system, and will also explore a customer service model by itself.

Wuwai, beyond the worldly things, as long as it is a customer of Wuwai, and is included in the supply system of Wuwai, there is no need to worry about the safety of food outside. I am also happy to sit and watch Sudan's redness and cyanamide smelting.

The first half of Wuwai’s domestic development idea will be similar to that of SGF in Europe, and it will also start from top customers. Nanque Shenzhai is not so much a villa project as it is an industry docking station, and many services will be there. Tear open the first domestic market opening.

The second half is the development of mid-end customers. The population base is there. In a few years, the number of people who are subjective and have the conditions to pay attention to healthy eating will definitely not be small. Wuwai can’t hide deep in the cloud like SGF in Europe and the United States. Sinking, connected to the atmosphere of the demographic dividend.

It should be said that many of Nan’s industries are divided into Huaguo and Huawai. Nanyi has marketing considerations. The model that is effective in China and abroad may not be effective in Huaguo. The strategy must be adjusted. In order to fit the characteristics of Huaguo's demographic dividend market.

When Nanyi entertained Emma, ​​they mainly talked about business matters, and didn't dare to talk about personal matters. They just cared about the arrangement of Ding Yiku's future study school. Emma's idea was to take Ding Yiku to Yangcheng and find a room there. School admission.

On the morning after Emma left, Nanyi received a call from Sophie Marceau from Hollywood, saying that she was attending the celebration of the investment and official launch of "Titanic".

Several investors and Cameron's team were in a restaurant, and the investors who had just confirmed their investment shares sat together and chatted happily.