Chapter 1025 Medical Investment

Chapter 1025 Medical Investment

The tiger cub accelerated its running speed, half a meter away from the wall, kicked its right foot on the ground vigorously, and took advantage of the momentum to rise into the air, before reaching the highest point, kicked its left foot on the wall again, and was about to reach the highest point His body jumped up again, and when he climbed up the edge of the wall with his hands, he pulled up with a pull-up, and lifted his feet to hook the edge of the wall. Before he could stand upright, he rolled over and fell on the other side of the wall.

The tiger cub adjusted its posture in the air, landed on its toes first, then lay down on the front, pressed its hands on the ground, and stood there for a while. When it felt the strength of its legs, it immediately stood up and ran around. , people disappear.

A quarter of an hour later, the tiger cub came to the entrance of a cigarette paper shop in an alley, ordered a bottle of salt soda, took a sip, held it in his mouth for a while before swallowing it, took two or three sips in a row, and waited for his breath to calm down. The tiger cub drank the remaining soda, returned the bottle, paid the bill, then walked out of the alley, took out his mobile phone, turned it on, and made a call.

"Nansheng, I'm giving away."

"How did you show it?"

"Get too close to be seen."

"Oh, come back first."

"The car is still at the gate of Tianfu Garden."

"Leave it alone, South Bund, intersection... at ten o'clock."

"I am going now."

After the two sides met, Nanyi asked Tiger Cub and Tianxian to switch positions, and Tianxian followed Lei Jian.

Stalking is boring and requires luck. The tiger cub was born in jungle warfare, and the direction of training afterward was defense. It is not professional for him to do stalking, not to mention that he is alone and does not cooperate. It is not surprising that he misses.

Nanyi didn't blame him, but he was a little upset. He had been in Shanghai for a few days, and the things in his hands were still a little bit worse, and he didn't know how long it would take.

Fortunately, many things that Nanyi needs to worry about have broken through the concept of space, and he does not necessarily need to be on the scene to control them, but he needs to make a little sacrifice in terms of time difference.

At ten o'clock in the evening, Nanyi was still remotely listening to the joint meeting held by several major pharmaceutical giants.

The theme of the meeting is to discuss ways to allow WTO members to reduce drug tariffs as soon as possible. To put it bluntly, it is to reduce the price of drugs without losing their own interests, so that "consumers" can get benefits and stimulate their enthusiasm. Buy enthusiasm, thereby increasing sales.

Every country has tariffs on drugs, the highest is about 50%, and the lowest is 0. The purpose of collecting tariffs is very simple. One is to protect the development of related industries in the country, and the other is to increase a little tax revenue. However, the first point is easily ineffective. unnecessary.

There is no way, the cost and risk of drug research and development are very high. The revenue of several giants can reach tens of billions of dollars, but the actual profit ratio that can be pocketed is not high. Most of the funds have to be invested in further research and development. , can only take a scoop to drink, and is not liked by most businessmen with ideals and pursuits.

If medicines are treated as an ordinary commodity, cut off research and development or let top students from the Department of Literature act as R\u0026D leaders, abandon test tubes and flasks, make research and development literary, reduce production costs, concentrate limited funds on marketing, and invest more Advertising, with this operation, there is a chance to achieve a profit margin of several hundred percent.

This model is low-risk and high-yield, and it is favored by some people. Now there is a certain weight-loss drug in the market. The manager of the R\u0026D department is concurrently the manager of the advertising department. He has gathered a group of high-achieving Chinese students, and everyone sits together and brainstorms. , "R\u0026D" curative effect and cases, repeatedly deliberate the ratio of each word, carefully consider and test each punctuation mark, and try to make the effect of weight loss drugs the best.

Finally, after 17 years, 13 months, 32 days, 25 hours, 61 minutes and 60.99 seconds of painstaking efforts by a certain professor and expert with a very high name, going through hardships, staying up all night, three times without entering the house, and three years without returning to the full moon, he finally developed I have found a weight-loss drug with significant effect, and I ask the people to testify that our drug is definitely a good drug.

With earphones in Nanyi’s ears, he listened to the big and vague content. The joint meeting is not a formal meeting. It’s just a contact between friends and businessmen to test each other’s ideas. If we really want to unite and work hard for the goal, we still need to screen Partners, running in repeatedly.

It is interesting that a representative of a pharmaceutical company put forward an idea of ​​differentiated research and reducing competition among peers. The general meaning is that each giant has its own field of expertise, and they should be restrained from each other. A little bit of privacy...

Nanyi is focused on two things, listening in his ears, but still thinking about other things in his mind.

He thought of the innovative drug pricing rules implemented in Japan. Before a new drug is launched, the Drug Pricing Committee first checks whether there are similar drugs for the new drug. If there are similar drugs, the similar drug pricing method is adopted; if there are no similar drugs, the cost method is used for pricing.

The so-called similar drug pricing method is to price the daily expenditure of new drugs to be consistent with that of similar drugs, and on this basis, a premium is given in terms of innovation, practicality, market size, and pediatric application.

The so-called cost pricing method comprehensively considers the cost of new drug research and development, marketing cost, management cost and other factors. In this method, the independent decision of the enterprise is stronger, and the profit of the enterprise is more generous.

It is not easy to develop new drugs with breakthrough significance. The price of drugs is limited, and the operating environment of Japanese pharmaceutical companies is under pressure, especially for small companies. The deteriorating operating environment has led to small-scale pharmaceutical companies having to withdraw from the market.

At the same time, under the huge pressure of survival, there has also been a wave of mergers and acquisitions among large pharmaceutical companies. Many companies have joined together to keep warm through mergers, alliances and other ways to gain scale effects and form several business departments with clear boundaries. This market structure is similar to the "private land" model that Nanyi heard in his ears.

For a long time, Japanese pharmaceutical companies have been relatively or completely dependent on the domestic market, and not many have gone abroad. Only Takeda Pharmaceutical entered the overseas market in the 1960s, but the speed of expansion was not fast. It was only in the 1980s that the pace was accelerated. But last year, it can be clearly felt that Takeda's strategy has begun to adjust, and its eyes are on the world.

Takeda is a typical representative of Japanese pharmaceutical companies, and it can also be said to be a weathervane. As Takeda expands, other Japanese pharmaceutical companies will follow. Many pharmaceutical companies in Japan have patented drugs with international competitiveness in their hands. After their international expansion strategy is launched, it is believed that their revenue will increase greatly.

The revenue is not only related to Unicom's profit, but also related to the stock price. In the upcoming wave of internationalization of Japanese pharmaceutical companies, there are many benefits. Nan's can definitely play a combination of punches - the third capital, Lizardman's shareholding in Japanese pharmaceutical companies , PY Securities operates the stock market, and if possible, it can also short-sell a certain pharmaceutical company. After all, the probability of drug accidents is still quite high, especially when someone promotes it.

Nanyi wrote down the three keywords of Japan, investing in shares, and the stock market in his notebook, and the space in his mind began to migrate westward, crossing the East China Sea and coming to China.

The reform and opening up is to cross the river by feeling the stones. Among the stones touched are the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, etc. Both the economy and the medical care are constantly absorbing the experience of these pioneers for their own use. It is said that Japan is a good benchmark for Huaguo.

The two countries have great similarities in population structure, medical policy, economic and cultural background, etc. Therefore, the track and experience of the Japanese pharmaceutical industry have important reference value for China.

From the current point of view, Japan is already the country with the highest aging rate in the world. In the 25 years from the 1960s to the 1980s, the proportion of the elderly population over the age of 65 increased by 5 points. From 1980 to 1995, Japan accelerated The aging period has emerged, and the proportion of the elderly population has risen from less than 9% to nearly 15%.

Based on the analysis of the current population structure and the memory in Nanyi's mind, there is no doubt that Huaguo will enter a period of accelerated aging in the near future. When this problem is faced, it is completely possible to touch the rock of Japan again. Absorb advanced experience and discard dross.

Reflecting on the aspect of medicine, in terms of prices, Huaguo will definitely implement a price reduction policy in the future, directly reducing prices or medical insurance compensation.

In terms of innovation, Japan has gradually moved from Me-Better (innovation in imitation) aimed at the domestic market to the international Best In Class (best in class); while Huaguo has shown signs of the Me-Better model, but it is not as good as it is. Influenced by the argument of buying, and the reduction of financial subsidies for medical care in recent years, hospitals have moved towards the road of "supporting doctors with medicine". imitation situation.

As for whether it is possible to innovate in imitation, it is really hard to say. After all, the problems of too high R\u0026D investment and too high risk cannot be avoided, even if it is just an improvement.

For some companies, it may happen that A insists on investing huge sums of money in research and development, turning the original beautiful financial report into a mess, and B is ordered to save the building from falling, but it happens that good news comes from the laboratory, and B becomes famous, and A loves it. So-and-so situation.

For other companies, come on, don't think about it, just wash up and sleep, a few steel pennies, it is more practical to break them apart and increase some benefits for workers. If you mix less corn flour in cold medicine, and don't mix Western medicine in the branded Chinese medicine, you can be regarded as a good person.

In addition to joking, Nanyi is also aware of the difficulty of drug research and development. Shengchen Pharmaceutical has been in business for almost ten years, and its profits have always been good, but it is really beyond its capabilities to invest in breakthrough drug research and development. And there will be a lot of resistance.

Shareholders get dividends every year, and they are always happy in their hearts. Suddenly, they don’t get any dividends. Nam Yi will vote in favor.

This is not how noble Nanyi is, but that he has a strong foundation and can carry it. Moreover, to expand in a malicious direction, being a "B" is a good choice. When the shareholders burn all their money, they want to sell them at a low price. At the juncture of the pharmaceutical industry, if the research and development has dawned, Nanyi can fully acquire the mess, and then spend money to compose a story of persistently moving forward and finally ushering in a miracle moment.

Then I said cheaply, my success lies in persistence. I sold my blood in the most difficult time. Before I succeeded, I still planned to lose my waist.

For Chinese pharmaceutical companies, it is one aspect that their strength does not allow them to invest in patented drug research and development, and the lack of motivation is another aspect. In addition to the pharmaceutical companies themselves, insurance is also deeply restricting the development of patented drugs.

In addition to selling the patented drugs of Third Biopharmaceuticals, G2B also has brokerage business. To put it simply, it is an agent for some new specialty drugs, and then opens up markets that pharmaceutical companies cannot open, and earns a little price difference from it.

If you want to open this difficult market, you can imagine the cost. In order to ensure profits, when G2B selects drugs, it will naturally choose some high-priced new and special drugs. For the selection of target markets, it has good contacts. The relationship is inevitable, and the second is to see whether the commercial insurance market in the destination is prosperous and whether the public participation rate is high.

There is a word "new" in high-priced new special drugs, which means that there is a high probability that it will not be included in the medical insurance catalogue, and all expenses need to be borne by consumers themselves, while the word "high price" means that there is a high probability that consumers will struggle to afford it, or even be unable to afford it. However, the commercial insurance market is not prosperous, and the sales of medicines will be relatively limited.

After all, one of the big differences between patented drugs and generic drugs is cost.

Although the technical level of patented drugs is higher, from a commercial point of view, generic drugs are low-cost and low-return, and the price is relatively affordable, while patented drugs have high R\u0026D investment costs and a long R\u0026D cycle, which is a high-risk high-return production mode.

Due to the high initial investment cost and the patent protection period of only 20 years, the pricing of patented drugs is generally high.

And if a domestic pharmaceutical company develops a new patented drug, it is difficult to enter the social medical insurance immediately, and patients usually need to rely on commercial insurance or purchase it at their own expense. Domestic commercial health insurance coverage is negligible, which means that the market space for high-priced drugs is limited, and many patients may choose other alternative treatment options.

For pharmaceutical companies, the market risk of making patented drugs is indeed very high. When pharmaceutical companies want to develop new drugs, technology and technology determine whether they can do it and whether they can do it well, and the market and interests determine whether pharmaceutical companies want to do it.

Obviously, as far as the current domestic situation is concerned, pharmaceutical companies don't want, can't, and simply don't have the ability to carry out high-input new drug development. Not only that, but most domestic pharmaceutical companies can't even produce generic drugs well.

There is an important difference between pharmaceuticals and general industrial products, that is, the imitation must be precise. If it is to imitate the production of general industrial products such as leather bags, clothes, toys, etc., as long as the proportions are roughly the same and the materials are similar, the finished product will not be much different.

However, the production of generic drugs requires almost the same dosage, safety, efficacy, quality, effect and indications as imported drugs, that is, drug consistency.

When the consistency between generic drugs and patented drugs is insufficient, it is easy to cause a series of problems such as different impurity content, different absorption degree, and side effects of the same drug.

However, the current domestic requirements for the consistency review of generic drugs are not high, which has led to many pharmaceutical companies being able to produce inferior generic drugs at a lower cost and pass drug approval.

Since generic drugs made at low cost are also up to standard, who is willing to spend a lot of money on production technology and technology research and development?

Technology and research and development obviously cannot play a sufficient role in promoting the industry, and are replaced by sales. Whoever advertises well will sell well, and major pharmaceutical companies focus on marketing instead of making a good drug.

If things go on like this, the pharmaceutical industry has formed a practice. The industry that should have been driven by technology has become a sales-driven industry. In terms of capital allocation, marketing also occupies the vast majority. R\u0026D investment of less than 1% is actually in line with market rules for many pharmaceutical companies in this environment.

Under such a general environment, although Nanyi has always had the idea of ​​spreading the net widely in the pharmaceutical industry, it has not put it into action. It is not that there are no good pharmaceutical companies worth investing in in China, but the kind of good people know that you want to invest , most people like to answer and ignore them, but if he wants to invest in dusty pearls, he lacks a set of standards for identifying good and bad pharmaceutical companies.

Whether it is a very effective standard in America or Europe, once it is brought to China, it will face unacceptable conditions. It is precisely because the domestic market is different from other countries and has its own strong individual characteristics, which has become Nan's industry. One of the main reasons for the division into Huaguo and the other two large blocks.

Nanyi started a new line and wrote down the three key words of network, region, and marketing in the notebook. The investment potential of domestic pharmaceutical companies may be screened from these three aspects.

There is a high probability that the Indonesian rupiah will usher in a big depreciation. It should be feasible to borrow the funds raised by Teng Bilian and borrow 200 billion Indonesian rupiah in the name of Hundreds of Millions International. The handling fee is 50 billion. Counting 86 billion, can the Indonesian rupiah more than double?

With doubts, Nan Yi tapped a few times on the keyboard to call up information about Indonesia...

From 9:30 to early morning, Nanyi didn't go to bed until the joint meeting was over.

The next day, at 8:00 a.m., some people from the third capital, the lizard people, the strategy team, and the financial team had a conference call, and the topic was to discuss the list of pharmaceutical companies worth investing in.

The list is very long, giants such as Merck, Wyeth, Hecht, Ciba-Geigy, Bayer, Pfizer, Warner Lambert, Abbott, Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers, SmithKline, Upjohn, Sandoz, Roche, etc. In the list, the reason why the financial team is also involved is because these giants don't just buy shares if they want to.

Don't force, don't show too much aggressiveness, and don't engage in high-premium acquisitions. It is relatively common for biopharmaceutical companies to find shareholders to increase capital. Just let you pay another big sum.

Nanyi can remember the names of many best-selling and high-priced drugs, but he does not know the R\u0026D funds consumed in the R\u0026D process. The R\u0026D process is uncertain, and there is no 100% low-input high-return in the field of biopharmaceuticals.

For a drug with total sales of tens of billions of dollars, the net profit that can be created during the patent period may be as low as a mere one or two billion, and if it is amortized evenly over 20 years, an investment may not be able to outperform low-risk financial products.

For a whole morning, Nanyi was listening and did not express his opinion.

In the afternoon, Nanyi continued to listen to a conference call, the topic of which was the prediction of the possible situation after the financial crisis that had already been foreseen in Southeast Asia and even swept across Asia. The focus was on which countries would seek help from the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF has four medicines: privatization, capital market liberalization, market pricing, poverty reduction strategies and free trade.

No matter which country seeks the help of the IMF, it means an opportunity for capital, a big opportunity.