Chapter 966 Southeast Asian Financial Crisis
The bubble itself is not terrible!
A proper bubble is always better than a stagnant pool of water, at least it shows vitality. The key is the insolvency of foreign debt!
From 1970 to 1996, Thailand's foreign debt scale continued to rise for 26 years. The 1980s and 1990s, when the economy developed fastest, were also the period when foreign debt rose fastest.
In 1986, the total stock of Thailand's foreign debt was US$18.5 billion, and in 1996 it reached US$112.8 billion, which rose more than six times in ten years.
Although Thailand's foreign exchange reserves have been growing, they are far less than the scale of foreign debt. From US$2.7 billion in 1986 to US$37.1 billion in 1996.
Thailand's total economic output increased from US$43.1 billion in 1986 to US$183 billion in 1996. Thailand's economic growth is highly dependent on foreign debt. It is precisely because of the large-scale borrowing that Thailand's economy has developed rapidly.
But Thailand has internal turmoil. In order to break the domestic political deadlock, Thailand has turned to Europe, the United States and Japan, hoping to break the internal deadlock and achieve a new balance.
In this regard, Thailand needs to reform its finance according to the requirements of Europe and the United States.
This gave Soros an opportunity. As far as investment itself is concerned, Soros's judgment of the stock market and his insight into human nature have reached an incredible level. He saw the opportunity.
Soros's short selling is not complicated. Simply put, it is to make money out of nothing, sell high and buy low, and make a profit. The international hot money led by Soros first borrowed a large amount of Thai baht from the Bank of Thailand, and the Bank of Thailand naturally welcomed it. You are interested in other people's high interest, and others are interested in your principal. Asset prices continued to rise and quickly reached a high level. The international hot money led by Soros cashed out at a high level and sold a large amount of Thai baht.
Caused a sharp drop in prices, and when it fell to the bottom, it bought it back to the Bank of Thailand at a low price. At this time, the Thai baht was already a bargain price, and Thailand's foreign exchange had been exhausted and was unable to take over the large amount of Thai baht sold on the market. With one in and one out, international hot money can make a huge amount of wealth.
The hard-earned foreign exchange that Thailand earned from processing turned into nothing, and the accumulated social wealth was swept away.
At this time, European and American financial groups came to Thailand again as saviors. They said they could help Thailand with a little grievance, on the condition that the economy and finance were further liberalized, and said that the reason why Thailand had an economic crisis was because Thailand's economy and finance were not liberalized enough.
In this way, they acquired a large number of high-quality assets in Thailand at a bargain price and took advantage of the situation to control the lifeline of Thailand's economy.
Yes, the routine is so simple!
This routine works every time!
If a sovereign state directly and strongly controls finance, these international hot money will naturally suffer heavy losses.
But the premise here is that a sovereign state dares to compete with Europe and the United States!
But Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines are not!
Of course, Soros and others are now reveling, but they don't know that there is a yellow bird behind.
Liu Tao's approach is very simple. In the early stage, he followed the international hot money and made a fortune from Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines. After all, whoever makes money is making money, and it is better to make money by yourself than to let international hot money make money.
In the middle and late stages, lend money to Thailand, and then completely establish the domestic situation in Thailand, and Chinese and overseas Chinese will play a leading role. At the same time, take advantage of the capital advantage to acquire high-quality assets.
In Malaysia and Singapore, the same approach is also adopted, while Indonesia and the Philippines are much more bloody.
In these places, huge internal conflicts will break out, and Chinese and overseas Chinese must use force to safeguard their own interests. Only the barrel of a gun can produce a regime!
Since July 2, 1997, Thailand abandoned the fixed exchange rate system and decoupled from the US dollar, and the Thai baht has completely lost its position. The exchange rate of the Thai baht to the US dollar dropped from 25 baht to 1 US dollar to 50 baht to 1 US dollar, an immediate depreciation of 50%. Since then, the national currencies of the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia have fallen one after another, and have successively abandoned the fixed exchange rate system.
Up to now, the Thai baht has fallen to 56 to 1 US dollar, the worst Indonesian rupee is 15,000 to 1 US dollar, a depreciation of nearly 80%, the Philippine peso is 44 to 1 US dollar, and the Malaysian ringgit is 4.8 to 1 US dollar, a depreciation of nearly 50%.
International hot money smelled the blood and took advantage of the situation to reap Southeast Asia. They opened their bloody mouths and showed their fangs. Wherever they went, there was no corpse left.
Well, in fact, he is now also a member of international hot money.
Liu Tao's eyes were calm and even indifferent.
From last year to now, the number of mercenaries in Thailand has increased to 8,000, the number of mercenaries in Malaysia has increased to 5,000, the number of mercenaries in Singapore has increased to 2,000, the number of mercenaries in Indonesia has increased to 8,000, and the number of mercenaries in the Philippines has increased to 4,000.
In these five countries alone, there are 27,000 mercenaries!
The total number of guards of overseas Chinese families in Thailand is as high as 200,000, which is almost as many as the number of Thai army. They are equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, and the infiltration of the military has never stopped; the total number of overseas Chinese guards in Malaysia is also more than 50,000, which is almost half of the Malaysian army.
In Indonesia, there are now 100,000 guards and 150,000 in reserve for Chinese families.
In the Philippines, there are 50,000 guards and 30,000 in reserve for Chinese families.
There are currently ships heading to Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.
There are not many tanks and armored vehicles, but there are anti-tank missiles, "Vanguard" individual air defense missiles, heavy machine guns and general-purpose machine guns.
Bullets and shells have never been cut off.
Even these weapons and bullets were sold at a discount, and they were almost unprofitable.
The weapons were not necessarily very advanced, but they were enough!
Liu Tao even delayed the delivery of the Type 001 light aircraft carrier to the Thai military until the second half of 1998.
It can be said that now everything is almost ready, except for the east wind!
When Liu Tao walked out of the study, it was already 10 o'clock.
Zhu Lin was looking at the two children, who were now 4 years old and at an active age. Now they were fishing.
A very simple fishing rod, a pole, a fishing line, and a hook.
Fishing a shrimp made the two very happy.
If they caught a fish, even a small one, they would cheer.
As for Liu Qing'an and Liu Manhua, they were already 14 years old and more self-disciplined. Even during the National Day, they only had one day off on October 1st and went to the tennis court for training.
Liu Tao also picked up a fishing rod and accompanied the children fishing.
Normally, he occasionally goes to Dianchi Lake to fish, not really for fishing, but to let himself be quiet for a while, take a break, and be able to move forward better.
Compared with Dianchi Lake, the fish and shrimp here in Siheyuan are smaller, after all, they are cleaned regularly, and the fish and shrimp grow for two years at most.
However, Liu Tao was lucky today, and he caught a 3-jin carp.
Because of water pollution, he has not drawn water from outside since a few years ago, but collects fish water and uses tap water for water replenishment. The water quality is not bad, and the fish and shrimp are edible.
The two children cheered happily and danced.