Chapter 1008 Analysis
If you want to intervene in the Russo-Japanese War, you must prepare in advance. In every major war before, Ernst had already made relevant arrangements to benefit from it. Now Ernst is faced with three possibilities. One is The first is that the Russo-Japanese War is postponed, the second is that the Russo-Japanese War does not happen, and the third is that the trend is consistent with the previous life.
The possibility of an early outbreak is almost non-existent. Because of Ernst, Japan's overall level is not as strong as in the previous life, and Tsarist Russia has not done much as in the previous life. At the same time, the Russo-Turkish War and the Western Region War are not as smooth as in the previous life, so even if the two countries break out The war is also unlikely to be brought forward.
In the Russo-Japanese War, Japan was more proactive than Russia. Therefore, when Japan was actively preparing for war in the previous life, there was no unified opinion within Russia. However, in response to Japan's full blow, the hastily prepared Russian army was ultimately defeated, so the war time Japan should be used as the standard for judging countries.
Therefore, if East Africa wants to predict when the Russo-Japanese War will break out, all it takes is to keep an eye on the movements of the Japanese government and military. Once Japan completes its military expansion, it will be impossible for Japan not to go to war under financial pressure. Currently, among the Far Eastern countries, It is impossible for Japan to act rashly in the spheres of influence of Britain, France and East Africa.
The interests of Britain, France and the United States in the Far East overlap to a certain extent. Take Shanghai as an example. There are leases from Britain and France. Although the United States does not have a lease, it has strong economic strength.
The sphere of influence in East Africa seems to be a good target, and East Africa has a normal relationship with Japan, but it cannot become Japan's target unless Japan can withstand the pressure of Germany, Austria, and East Africa at the same time, so the German country's signature is very easy to use. , the business groups in the three Far Eastern countries can actually be regarded as a whole.
Russia's sphere of influence is in the northeast, and although Russia borders the Far Eastern Empire and the Siberian Railway exists, the transportation capacity of the Siberian Railway is a huge problem. For example, when the Russo-Japanese War broke out in the previous life, the Lake Baikal and other sections of the Russian Siberian Railway None are finished.
Moreover, the geographical location of Tsarist Russia's sphere of influence happened to be stuck at the first stop of Japan's national policy of aggression. The order of Japan's national policy of aggression was to use the peninsula as a springboard, followed by the area currently illegally occupied by the Russians.
The reason why Britain wants to get involved is also related to the current sphere of influence of Tsarist Russia. As the UK with the greatest interests in the Far Eastern Empire, its sphere of influence is bounded by the Huaihe River and divided into two parts by the Huaihai Economic Zone in East Africa.
This can be seen from the distribution of treaty ports. The most important coastal treaty port in East Africa is Jiaozhou, while Shanghai in the south and Yingkou in the north are both controlled by the British. Therefore, as Russian power continues to move south, the first thing it threatens is the United Kingdom and other countries. Interests.
Although the Huaihai Economic Zone has developed well in recent years, it cannot make up for the fact that its economy is relatively weak in the eastern coastal area of the Far Eastern Empire in a short time. After all, the Yellow River burst, various natural disasters, frequent wars, and the East African immigration policy have doomed the local population. It is difficult to return to its heyday.
The fundamental reason for economic recovery lies in the rapid development of cities in the Huaihai Economic Zone. On the other hand, agriculture in the Huaihai Economic Zone has not yet fully recovered.
Moreover, the main economic force promoting economic development in the region has changed from the original East Africa, Germany, and Austria to Germany, East Africa, and Austria. With East Africa vigorously developing its local economy, immigration policy adjustments, state-owned enterprise reforms and other reasons, East Africa has become more important in the Far Eastern Empire. The activity of the empire could no longer match that of German capital.
Fortunately, East Africa has a relatively solid foundation there, so it is still the second dominant force in the region after the Far Eastern Empire.
All in all, even if other countries are now considering the Huaihai Economic Zone, the most anxious countries should include Germany, not just East Africa.
Therefore, within the region, the area that Britain and Japan are most afraid of and the easiest to conquer is the area radiated by Russian influence.
As for the second scenario, there is a high possibility that war between Japan and Russia will not break out. This mainly depends on the attitude of the Japanese government. However, with this secret meeting between the British and Japanese governments, Ernst is already very confident. The ambitions of the Japanese government are expanding. As for the third situation, it is basically the same as in the previous life. There is nothing to say.
Ernst: "Suppose there is a war between the two countries, and we want to seek benefits from it, the main target of attack is Russia. Russia is at a strategic disadvantage, and coupled with the British's troubles, Russia will inevitably have no choice but to turn to us in East Africa. ”
In its previous life, Russia was blocked by the British. Some of its main naval forces in Europe were unable to fully support the war because of the British obstruction.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet could not even pass through the Dardanelles Strait due to treaty reasons, so in the end it had to draw forces from the most powerful Baltic Fleet, bypass the African continent, and finally reach Asia, because Gibraltar and the Suez Canal are also controlled by the British. among.
The ship's detour around the Cape of Good Hope not only increased the navigation time and difficulty, but also because of the British intervention, the neutral powers in Africa in the previous life did not dare to provide assistance to Tsarist Russia and rest and recuperate.
This makes the places where Tsarist Russian soldiers sleep covered with coal ash. Without carrying a large amount of coal and supplies, and without effective rest, the Tsarist Russian Navy can reach the Far Eastern Sea. This performance is very qualified.
But this time and space is different. East Africa occupies a small half of Africa, and it also has stable colonies in the Southeast Asia region, and is fully capable of providing relevant services to the Russian fleet.
Of course, whether East Africa will cooperate with Russia depends on what bargaining chips Britain and Tsarist Russia can give to East Africa.
The scope of interests is that it doesn't matter if we provide services to Russia. In Ernst's view, if a war breaks out, Russia will definitely lose, and even if East Africa provides services to its navy, it will not change this result.
"The second is the funding problem of Tsarist Russia. We can give Russia some help in this regard, but there must be collateral or short-term loans, especially mineral resources such as oil."
During the Russo-Japanese War, Russia had a huge funding gap. Although Russia is a big country, the expenditure of the Russo-Japanese War is huge, and now the Russian government owes a lot of debts. If another large-scale war is fought, the Russian treasury will be full of rats.
Moreover, although lending money to Russia can also make a profit, it is very risky. In the past, France was the largest creditor of Russia. Since the Franco-Prussian War, France, a usurer, has been lending money to Russia. France has provided Russia with a large amount of loans, but the French could not have imagined that their massive investment in Tsarist Russia would eventually be defaulted by the new government due to the change of Russian regime.
Therefore, East Africa cannot do long-term business. Even if the Russian regime does not collapse, East Africa's debt collection work will not be easy to carry out, because there are too many creditors in Russia, such as France, Britain, Germany, and Austria-Hungary. With so many competitors, debt collection work is not easy to carry out, so East Africa can only think of ways to get from Russian resources.
Among various resources in Russia, oil is what East Africa needs more. In the previous life, the Russian regime collapsed in 1917. There are still more than ten years in between, which is enough for East Africa to obtain a large amount of oil resources from the Baku oil field.
The Russian government, which is unable to repay its debts, will definitely be happy to accept East Africa's proposal. At least before the Russian government collapses, East Africa can make a lot of money.
Ernst continued: "Now it depends on the game between Britain, Japan, and Russia. We can only get rich if we set up a good net in advance. In particular, we should pay attention to the movements of the Japanese and Russian governments. It is best for us to bet at the critical moment."
The bet must not be placed on Russia alone. East Africa wants to take both. In the Russo-Japanese War, the more tragic the two countries fight, the better.