Chapter 1018 Negotiation
As time went by, the Russian government's view of the war was developing in an unfavorable direction step by step. The Lushun Navy could not break through for a long time. In this situation, Russia also began to make the worst plan.
On the one hand, the Russian government's Baltic Fleet began to prepare and entered a state of war readiness. On the other hand, the Russian government began to lobby countries along the route, especially Britain, Germany, France and the three East African countries, to seek support and ensure the smooth flow of waterways.
February 26, 1894.
Russian Ambassador to East Africa Maxim once again found the East African government.
"We in Russia hope that East Africa will support our country in this round of war, open the two west coast ports of Luanda or Cabinda, as well as the east coast ports that can provide related services, Pontianak in the Nanyang region, and the South Ryukyu Islands in the Far East, to provide our country with warships at any time during the war. Rest, material supply and other services."
The regional location of East Africa and the distribution of colonies can perfectly solve the current dilemma of Russia's naval expedition, especially the South Ryukyu Islands and the Lanfang Overseas Province.
After the Russian fleet passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Lanfang Overseas Province is one of the main locations that can be provided to the Russian Navy in the region, unless France and other countries provide relevant services to the Russian Navy.
The location of the South Ryukyu Islands is even more wonderful. Under the clear neutrality of the Far Eastern Empire, if the South Ryukyu Islands can be used by the Russian Navy in the maritime battlefield between Japan and Russia, it can definitely play a big role. Of course, East Africa will definitely not agree.
"Ambassador Maxim, there are no big problems with other cities and colonies in East Africa, but the South Ryukyu Islands must not be involved in the war. After all, our country's control over the South Ryukyu Islands is relatively weak due to the distance."
"And Japan has always been ambitious about the South Ryukyu Islands. Our country cannot leave Japan an excuse to start a war. The South Ryukyu Islands are too close to the Japanese mainland, and any risk is not something our country can bear."
Ernst will not open the South Ryukyu Islands to Russia. If he really leaves a pretext, Japan may use this as an article to seize the South Ryukyu Islands.
At that time, the East African Navy was no longer the one that could suppress the Japanese Navy more than a decade ago. If Japan was determined to go against East Africa, Alaska, the South Ryukyu Islands, and the Kingdom of North Hawaii might all fall into danger, causing East Africa's layout in the Pacific region for decades to fail.
In this regard, Maxim still wanted to fight for it. After all, if the South Ryukyu Islands could play a role in the war, it would be of great help to Russia.
Maxim proposed: "Your Highness, don't rush to refuse. If East Africa can provide us with the South Ryukyu Islands as a temporary base, we are willing to share part of the spoils with your country after Russia defeats Japan. As far as I know, the South Ryukyu Islands are part of the Ryukyu Islands. As long as our country wins the war, we can completely add the North Ryukyu Islands to the negotiation results and transfer them to East Africa for management after the war."
This proposal can be said to be very bold. When the war situation is not yet clear, it shows to a certain extent that the Russian government has made a judgment on Japan's fate. Assuming that Japan is defeated in the Russo-Japanese War, there is no doubt that Japan will go bankrupt. After all, there is only one outcome of defeat, that is, the destruction of the Japanese Combined Fleet.
If the war ends like this, Japan will only become a prey to Russia if it loses its navy. Although the mainland may be preserved due to the guarantee of the United Kingdom and the United States, other overseas colonies including Korea and other Pacific colonies are likely to be divided up by Russia.
Ernst naturally could not agree with the Russian government's fantasy. Before the war broke out, Ernst was 100% sure that even if Russia did not lose badly, it would not be able to defeat Japan. At most, both sides would suffer losses and end up in a draw, and the possibility of a draw was no more than 10%.
Therefore, Ernst was not tempted by Maxim's big pie. He said: "Ambassador Maxim, East Africa will never use its territory as a bet for war. Although we are very "optimistic" about Russia and are willing to provide help within our capacity, the South Ryukyu Islands are the bottom line of East Africa and cannot be moved rashly."
In response to Ernst's straightforward refusal, Maxim said: "Your Highness, our Russian navy is far more powerful than Japan. The Pacific Second Fleet to be formed is powerful. In addition, the Far East Fleet's early consumption of the Japanese Navy. When the Second Fleet arrives in the Far East, it will be the end of the Japanese Navy. The advantage is completely on our side..."
According to Maxim, the Russian Navy has a great chance of winning. If it is a war with other countries, Ernst may really believe it.
However, Ernst knows both Russia and Japan. The Japanese Navy is definitely not an existence that can be easily controlled by Russia as Maxim said, and the Russian Navy is not as disciplined and invincible as Maxim imagined.
From the perspective of war experience, the last historically significant naval battle of Russia was the Crimean War. The only thing worth mentioning in recent years was the Russo-Turkish War. However, for a country like the Ottoman Empire, it is not polite to say that it cannot be compared with an opponent of Japan's level.
In Ernst's view, Japan's investment in military construction in recent years has greatly exceeded that of Russia. It is not the funding and number of ships. After all, based on Japan's size, it is impossible to surpass Russia. Instead, it is the military system that surpasses Russia. If the Russian Navy and the Japanese Navy both invest 100 yuan, Russian officers will at least deduct 50%, while Japan may be less than 10%. The morale of the Japanese Navy cannot be compared with that of the Russian Navy.
At the same time, the Japanese Navy has no generation gap with Russia in terms of equipment, and the scale is not much different. Although Russia may form an ocean-going fleet to support the Pacific battlefield, it may be difficult to arrive without half a year of preparation. By that time, the Far East Fleet in Lushun will have been dead, and the Japanese Navy can just sit back and wait for the exhausted Pacific Second Fleet.
Russia's Pacific Second Fleet seems to be strong, but when the war really starts, its performance may not be as good as the original Far East Fleet.
The Russian Far East Fleet is at least adapted to the climate of East Asia and is familiar with the local hydrology and geography. The Pacific Second Fleet, also known as the Baltic Fleet, will probably be like a headless fly and find it difficult to adapt to the battlefield environment as long as it enters the Far East waters.
In the Russo-Japanese War in the previous life, the Russian warships lost more than 200,000 tons. Among the twelve battleships, eight sank and four were captured. Among the eight cruisers, three sank, one was killed, three were detained by a third country, and only one escaped back to Vladivostok. More than 4,000 Russian naval officers and soldiers were killed, nearly 6,000 were captured, and more than 1,800 were detained in neutral countries. However, Japan only paid a small price of three torpedo boats sunk and more than 100 officers and soldiers killed to achieve this result.
With such a record in the previous life, Ernst could never believe that the Russian Navy could turn the tables. The performance of the Russian Navy in the previous life could be said to be worse than that of a pig. The trauma to the Japanese Navy was only at the level of scraping. Moreover, relying solely on the captured Russian naval ships, the Japanese Navy did not lose money but made a profit, and the damage was basically zero.
Therefore, Ernst had great confidence in the combat effectiveness of the Russian Navy. The current real level of the Russian Navy could not be higher than that of the previous life. In the Far East, it could only be beaten up.
Therefore, East Africa cannot bet on Russia's victory. It can provide some services to Russia, which is also some arrangements that East Africa must make due to its greed for the Russian market and resources.
Even more bluntly, if the Far Eastern Empire had the equipment advantage of the Russian Navy, I am afraid that the outcome of the previous Far Eastern naval war would have gone to another end. This also indirectly shows that the internal problems of the Russian Navy at that time were too serious.
Ernst did not hold a glimmer of hope for the Russian Navy. As for the big pie of the entire Ryukyu Islands mentioned by Maxim, it was just a unilateral fantasy of Russia. After a while, if Japan gave more lessons, Ernst believed that Russia would be completely honest.