Chapter 1053 Persian Gulf
When the Second Five-Year Plan for East Africa was underway, the world was not peaceful in 1907. Conflicts between European countries became increasingly severe, especially the conflicts between Germany and France. This was obviously affected by the economic crisis to a certain extent.
The relationship between Britain and Russia has also undergone a certain degree of change. Russia was the biggest loser in the Russo-Japanese War, but the aftermath was not entirely detrimental to Russia. For example, on the issue of Central Asia, Russia and Britain reached a compromise, and the two sides China has renegotiated negotiations on Persia, Afghanistan and other regions, and the reasons for the warming of relations between the two countries are also complicated.
"Britain and Russia may have reached some kind of tacit understanding on Central Asia and the northwest region of the Far Eastern Empire. With Russia's poor performance in the Russo-Japanese War, the threat from Russia has been greatly reduced in the eyes of the British, and Russia has gone through the economic crisis. , the Russo-Japanese War, and the domestic movement, the tsarist government’s predicament also forced them to improve relations with Britain.”
“However, the compromise between the two countries in the contradictory region of Central Asia will have a certain adverse impact on us. Central Asia, including Afghanistan and other countries, as well as Persia in the Middle East, are one of my country’s important commodity export destinations. In the past, relying on The conflict between Britain and Russia means that our country can fish in troubled waters, but once Britain and Russia divide their spheres of influence, it will obviously be detrimental to our country’s commodity exports.”
Relying on the relationship between the Omanis (former Zanzibar merchants), East Africa has long opened trade with Central Asia and the countries along the Persian Gulf.
As the main participants in the regional order, Britain and Russia could not reach an agreement in the past due to various differences. This also ensured the smooth flow of local trade in East Africa. Therefore, the "reconciliation" between Britain and Russia will inevitably affect the interests of East Africa.
Listening to the intelligence agency's analysis, Ernst felt quite heavy. East Africa, like the United States, is not keen on participating in international politics for the time being, but its core interests of safeguarding its own economic development will not change.
For example, the "Monroe Doctrine" and the recently proposed "Open Door" in the United States are essentially the expansion of the U.S. economic sphere of influence and a sign that U.S. industrial products are moving from the Americas to the world.
East Africa did not have an African version of the "Monroe Doctrine" in the past, but through its influence on neighboring countries, an "East African Economic Circle" has been roughly formed. However, the gold content of this economic circle is far less than the sphere of influence established by the United States in North America. Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean countries are far from comparable to the Abyssinian Empire, the Kingdom of South Germany and other countries or colonies.
Moreover, the Monroe Doctrine in the United States is a clear political proposition. The East African economic circle has not yet formed a clear political and economic concept. The main reason is that the surrounding colonies of Britain and France are relatively strong, and they do not have higher standards like South America. autonomy.
Of course, East Africa's temporary non-expansion of the East African economic circle is also related to the consolidation of a peaceful external development environment. This unspoken form of interest exchange has indeed greatly eased relations between East Africa and other countries.
The situation in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf coast is different. East Africa naturally attaches great importance to the Indian Ocean coast. After all, most of the coastline of East Africa is located along the Indian Ocean coast, and it is the largest country along the Indian Ocean coast. This also makes East Africa always want to play a greater role in the Indian Ocean. .
East Africa divides the Indian Ocean into roughly five regions, including the Austroocean Plate, Oceania Plate, Indian Plate, Arabian Plate, and African Plate.
The core of Oceania is Australia, which like India is an undisputed British colony. At the same time, the British power is also very strong in other plates.
For example, Egypt and British Somaliland on the African plate, Yemen, Oman on the Arab plate, the tribes on the west coast of the Persian Gulf (UAE, etc.), Persia, etc. all have British colonies or belong to British protectorates, and the same is true for the Nanyang plate.
Therefore, in the Indian Ocean, which East Africa regards as its core interest in the future, the United Kingdom is the biggest obstacle to East Africa. As for other countries, the threat is far less great than the United Kingdom.
If East Africa wants to dismantle the British sphere of influence in the Indian Ocean, it naturally needs to take steps step by step, starting with the Arabian Plate and the Nanyang Plate where the British control is weak, and finally Egypt (Red Sea), Australia, and India, which are the British coasts of the Indian Ocean. core colony.
Among these sectors, the Arab sector is the easiest to intervene, because there are relatively independent countries such as Persia and Ottoman in the region, and if Britain and Russia determine their respective spheres of influence, it will be more difficult for East Africa to intervene in the future.
This is why the United States proposed an "open door" when countries around the world were dividing their spheres of influence in the Far Eastern Empire, which was to prevent other countries from excluding U.S. interests.
If East Africa does not intervene in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf, it will face the same choice as the United States. Therefore, in order to maintain its interests in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf, and at the same time lay chess pieces in the region in the future, East Africa cannot remain indifferent.
"The actions of Britain and Russia have almost no impact on the Ottoman Empire, so the Ottoman Empire will inevitably choose to 'play dead'. Therefore, if we want to intervene in regional affairs, we can only use Persia as the main starting point, although it may not be able to prevent it. Britain and Russia, but at least we must ensure our country’s voice and economic interests in the region.”
East Africa's trade activities with Central Asia and the Persian Gulf coast are quite convenient. Not only is the distance close, but it is also a sea route with the lowest cost. This has allowed East African industrial products to conquer the region in recent years and form a huge interest network. Therefore, East Africa cannot easily give up the existence of local interests.
Of course, it is unlikely that East Africa will directly engage in war with Britain and Russia for this place. After all, East Africa's naval strength does not have much advantage over the two countries.
In this case, if East Africa wants to intervene in this region, it can only support agents, and according to the timid and fearful situation of the Ottoman Empire at this stage, it cannot be counted on.
Persia became the only choice for East Africa. Persia has always been one of the traditional powers in the Middle East and Central Asia and has huge influence in the region.
Moreover, this round of negotiations between Britain and Russia has the greatest negative impact on Persia. Britain and Russia use the Persian Gulf as the boundary, almost dividing Persia into two, which will definitely harm Persia's interests.
However, despite the severe decline of Persia in modern times, the country's industrial strength and military strength are weak. Without state support, I am afraid that it will have no choice but to face the tacit understanding between Britain and Russia.
"Politically, Persia has always been mainly leaning towards Britain, and some are also leaning towards Russia. However, the main reason for the formation of these political factions is that there was no choice in the past. There are also a large number of resistance forces in the country. We can completely influence other forces by supporting them. The domestic politics in Persia will cause more troubles for Britain and Russia, forcing the two countries to pay attention to our interests. "
Intervening in Persia is the best choice for the current East African government. Although it will cause displeasure to Britain and Russia, there is also a lot of room for maneuver. This is not the core interest of the three countries, so if a dispute occurs, it will not escalate the conflict. It is the countries in the region that suffer more from war, and this is not what the three countries need to care about.
After some discussions, the East African government finally decided to intervene in the internal affairs of Persia and other countries, and join the British and Russian carve-up activities in the Persian Gulf region.
After all, if East Africa does not intervene, it will not only be excluded from the region, but may also lose its original vested interests. This is unacceptable to East Africa.
The addition of East Africa will inevitably make the situation along the Persian Gulf more tense. In Ernst's view, if East Africa wants to expand its influence along the Indian Ocean coast, it must seize this opportunity. If successful, it will not only guarantee East Africa's vested interests. , and also contribute to East Africa’s future layout in the field of energy security.
The interests behind the Persian Gulf are still too great, and Ernst cannot let go of any opportunity to intervene. If he retreats at this time and oil resources are exposed in the future, it will be even more difficult for East Africa to intervene again.